Sailors with the US Navy recover material off the coast of South Carolina from the shooting down of a Chinese high-altitude balloon, on February 10. Photo: US Navy via AP
Opinion
Daryl Guppy
Daryl Guppy
‘Balloongate’ showcased US gunslinger approach to foreign policy
Washington attempted to call Beijing about the balloon only after it had shot it down – and then proceeded to shoot down another three objects
A policy of ‘shoot first, ask questions later’ may prove to be an expensive farce when executed in US airspace, but could be catastrophic if applied over the South China Sea
In the wake of “balloongate”, it appears the United States has expended more than a million dollars using US$439,000 missiles to shoot down three unidentified objects, including what may have been a US$12 hobbyist’s balloon. Apart from the farcical aspect of this incident, it highlights the worrying development of a gunslinger approach to foreign policy.
The gunslinger holds a unique and treasured place in American cowboy mythology, dispensing instant justice often before all the facts are known. It is this aspect of the United States’ sudden balloon-phobia that is most disturbing, because it reveals a heightened sense of insecurity and overreaction. Such a pattern of shoot first and ask questions later, applied in a wider context, signals a dangerous new phase of global instability.
Recent events have been compared to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis in terms of the need for an effective means of communication in times of crisis to avoid misunderstandings becoming catastrophic. Such a hotline already exists between the US and China but it appears that the gunslinger approach to foreign policy has destroyed its effectiveness.
The idea of the crisis hotline was that it would be used to defuse a situation before any action was taken, or to convey the threat of action. Such a hotline was first set up between the US and the Soviet Union in the wake of the Cuban missile crisis to speed up communication between US president John F. Kennedy and Russian premier Nikita Khrushchev during an emergency.
However, the hotline was not used to defuse a situation before action was taken, or to convey the threat of action, in the recent situation involving the Chinese balloon in US airspace. China turned down the US request for a call between US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe, later explaining that this was because the hotline was deployed only after the US had destroyed the balloon off the coast of South Carolina. From the available media reports, it appears Austin did not attempt to discuss and resolve the issue in the week before the balloon was shot down.
US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, pictured during a meeting at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, on February 10. Photo: EPA-EFE
There is little point in having such a discussion after the event. The hotline is designed to be used before action is taken, but the new gunslinger foreign policy turns this approach on its head.
The gunslinger mentality disfigures American thinking and is one of the foundations of the gun violence that continues to plague the US. It is an approach that sits comfortably alongside manufactured hysteria.
Parallels can be drawn between the current media frenzy over balloons of all types and events in US history. For example, Arthur Miller’s 1953 play, The Crucible, examines the manufactured panic surrounding the 17th century witch trials in Salem, Massachusetts. The play is a comment on the hysteria seen during the Senator Joseph McCarthy-led Un-American Activity trials of 1953.
As history shows, such hysteria can lead to very undesirable outcomes. Avoiding these outcomes requires us first to recognise the change in circumstances rather than be sidetracked by the details of events.
The focus of today’s hysteria is China. North Korea’s recent launch of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile does not seem to merit the same level of media concern, although in time this may also trigger an ill-conceived gunslinger approach to resolving problems.
02:43
‘A clear overreaction’: Beijing rebukes Washington for shooting down Chinese balloon
‘A clear overreaction’: Beijing rebukes Washington for shooting down Chinese balloon
The situation in the South China Sea and the ongoing US-led goading of China in relation to Taiwan together contribute to an environment that calls for a calm, steady application of diplomacy to avoid tipping into catastrophe. The assumption that caution will prevail despite the dangerous games being played is no longer as valid as it once was. The “shoot first, ask questions later” method of conducting policy introduces a new instability into the calculus of peace.
What is an expensive farce taking place across the northern parts of the United States would become a catastrophic error if applied to the delicate airspace above the South China Sea.
The merits of destroying the balloon off the coast of South Carolina will be debated for some time with any meteorological sensors being held up as evidence of dual purpose technology. What needs to be discussed is the morphing of foreign policy action away from diplomacy and towards the code of the gunslinger. This marks a departure from previous foreign policy approaches which manufactured lies, like the “weapons of mass destruction” claim, to justify attacks.
The gunslinger approach opens a Pandora’s box of tension and problems, that if applied to the policy of goading China in the South China Sea and in relation to Taiwan, can lead to catastrophic, but avoidable, consequences. This is the real message that should come out of this contretemps.
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert and a former national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The views expressed here are his own
