Why Joe Biden’s US could end up jilting Taiwan to make peace with Beijing
- Biden has repeatedly walked back commitments to defend Taiwan as attempts to build alliances against Beijing see mixed success
- As China’s might grows, and Biden faces growing domestic pressures, he may have to change his foreign policy strategy to make amends and cooperate with China
Yet, Biden has offered Taiwan America’s continued support. Motivated by Beijing’s serious threat to the United States, Biden probably sees Taiwan’s democratic leadership as his enemy’s enemy. Also, Biden’s supporters on the left in the Democratic Party fancied Taiwan for its progressive policies.
So, Taipei found a new friend. But, on August 16, as the Taliban swiftly took control of Kabul, Taiwan officials wondered whether trusting Biden was a horrible mistake.
But Taiwan is not Afghanistan. There is no cultural divide between the US and Taiwan, which poses no financial burden to America. So, trepidation about the US abandoning Taiwan dissipated.
But inasmuch as he made a similar statement in August and then walked back, one can assume his latest words were in error or to please Taiwan-supporting Congress members. The White House later clarified that US policy remained unchanged.
Observers recalled that Biden had dismissed China as of little concern to the US during his election campaign, only to call it a formidable enemy once in office – and one the US may not be able to cope with without allies. He also portrayed international relations as a life-and-death struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.
But none of the countries there were willing to join Aukus and tilt against China. Also, US defence spending was in a deep freeze. The last budget increase was of a smaller percentage that the rise in US inflation and China’s defence budget.
Explained: The CPTPP trade deal
The hope is that the US, in such a pact, could better compete against China’s growing dominance in trade and finance. Experts said this was hopelessly ambitious. After all, China is by far the world’s largest trader, with nearly 15 per cent of global trade, and the top trading partner of at least 120 countries – far ahead of the US.
Meanwhile, Biden’s ambitious spending plans at home necessitate tax rises that will seriously dampen economic growth. Estimates by the International Monetary Fund and think tanks, and even Biden himself, put US economic growth after 2022 in the 1 per cent-plus range, while China’s economy is projected to double America’s by 2050.
It appears that Biden needs to change his foreign policy strategy to make amends and cooperate with China.
That leaves Taiwan in the lurch. Will Biden jilt Taiwan, as his track record and now-desperate need for a new China policy suggest? Possibly.
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than 35 books on China, Taiwan and US Asia policy