Afghanistan debacle will make US courtship of Southeast Asia all the more difficult

Despite the recent flurry of diplomatic activity, Vice-President Kamala Harris will have a tough job reassuring allies of US resolve to provide leadership when she visits the region this month, amid the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan

Manik Mehta

Published: 9:15am, 19 Aug 2021

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While former US president Donald Trump did little to demonstrate traditional American leadership in the Indo-Pacific, in the face of China’s growing assertiveness in Asia and particularly in the South China Sea, his successor Joe Biden wants the United States to actively curb Beijing’s expansionist instincts.

China has been building up artificial islands in the South China Sea and pre-empting the claims of others – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan – and this has caused trepidation that US influence in the region is waning.

Trade between China and its neighbours has grown exponentially, making the latter vulnerable to Chinese pressure and impairing their ability to stand up to it, but this cannot be construed as subservience or permission for China to violate their sovereignty.

US Vice-President Kamala Harris will visit Singapore and Vietnam this month to reassure Southeast Asia of America’s resolve to provide leadership in the region and check China’s growing assertiveness.

White House spokeswoman Symone Sanders said Harris will “engage the leaders of both governments on issues of mutual interest, including regional security, the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change and our joint efforts to promote a rules-based international order”, adding that the visit was aimed at “deepening our engagement in Southeast Asia”.

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Harris’ visit follows intense diplomatic activity to strengthen America’s presence in the region. Last month, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, promising the US would “always lead with our values”.

Washington, in particular, wants to deepen ties with Hanoi as China strengthens its military activity in the South China Sea where, as the Pentagon press secretary John Kirby put it, “China continues to be very aggressive in the space”.

Vietnam has been vocal in opposing China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Chinese vessels are accused of harassing oil and gas developers off Vietnam’s coast, hindering their energy development.

Vietnam has received US Coast Guard cutters to bolster its defensive ability against the Chinese naval force operating in waters claimed by both countries. But the Biden administration has also conveyed its human rights concerns to the Vietnamese government.

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Austin, who signed a memorandum of understanding with his Vietnamese counterpart to help locate the Vietnam war dead, raised the human rights’ issue gently, according to Kirby, who said Austin’s attitude was that “good friends and partners should be able to have open and honest discussions with one another about these difficult, fairly sensitive issues”.

Earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a series of virtual meetings with his Asean counterparts, including Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand, in a clear demonstration of US commitment. Other high-level contacts include Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s visits to Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand.

One reason for the intense diplomatic contact, as a State Department official told Reuters, is that countries in the region “notice when we don’t show up and that’s when you start hearing some complaining maybe about not taking them seriously or taking them for granted”.

The US has also countered China’s vaccine diplomacy by shipping some 23 million US vaccines to Vietnam and other countries in the region.

Austin’s Southeast Asian tour shows a better way for US to counter China

Like Austin and Blinken before her, Harris will underscore the maintenance of international rules in the South China Sea, strengthening US regional leadership and expanding security cooperation.

Washington’s emphasis on international rules-based conduct in the South China Sea will be supported by the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, whose presence in the region is set to strengthen, although the partners – Australia, India, Japan and the US – play down its military character.

Countries in the region generally welcome a US military presence in the face of China’s militarisation of the waters and its vast coastguard and fishing fleet.

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“The vice-president is going to underscore that there should be free passage for trade, throughout the South China Sea, and no single country should disrespect the right of others,” a White House official said.

The US Navy has maintained a steady pattern of freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and near Taiwan, but these appear to have done little to discourage Beijing.

China’s world power ambitions were encouraged by Trump’s disinterest in Indo-Pacific leadership. His shabby treatment of European allies further hardened China’s belief that America was unable or unwilling to assume global leadership.

Southeast Asian countries have welcomed the Quad’s presence and many experts in the region hope the US leadership role will deter China’s expansionist designs. They do not want mere lip service; sooner or later, China is expected to test the resolve of the US and its friends to stand up to its might.

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US experts believe the Quad, which will conduct its Malabar 2021 exercises off Guam in the Western Pacific later this month, can provide an effective, coherent and strong deterrent against China’s expansionist moves in the region.

But commitment must be steadfast to avoid a repeat of the Trans-Pacific Partnership – Trump’s withdrawal created distrust among remaining pact members about America’s interest in its leadership role in the Indo-Pacific.

The recent disastrous collapse of the Afghan government to the Taliban following the US withdrawal from the country has also shocked many, particularly the speed with which the Taliban gained ascendancy.

The developments in Afghanistan have caused trepidation among European and Asian allies who can no longer sleep peacefully at night, knowing that Uncle Sam is keeping guard for them.

The hasty and badly planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been widely condemned, raising doubts about America’s reliability. Harris will have a lot of convincing to do when she visits Asia.

Manik Mehta is a New-York-based journalist who writes extensively on foreign affairs and diplomacy