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The View | Trump’s tariff threat signals no relief from US-China trade pain

  • Donald Trump’s pledge of expanded, ‘eye for an eye’ tariffs if he wins the presidency threatens a return to an era of depressed trade and growth
  • US firms, importers and allies should prepare for the effects of Trump’s possible re-election

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An attendee flies a flag supporting former US president Donald Trump ahead of a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 20. Trump’s pledge to expand his use of tariffs should he return to office has sparked concern among US businesses and allies. Photo: Bloomberg
Former US president Donald Trump’s promise to levy new tariffs in his free-form stump speeches – “an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff” – is unsettling to CEOs and government leaders as they envision how he could upend their ambitions if he returns to power next January.
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They have good reason. Tariffs depress trade, investment and output by raising costs while reducing demand and provoking retaliation. Policy shocks heighten uncertainty, which causes businesses to rethink decisions on expansion plans, pricing and investment options. Supply chains are disrupted while innovation is stymied as untargeted industries are swept into the vortex of trade wars.
The combined effect harms consumer welfare and undermines growth. The severity depends on the affected industry’s size and the extent to which domestic or foreign alternatives can be readily substituted. Damages from trade wars typically exceed protectionism’s benefits in every area, from innovation to job creation to spillover effects on foreign relations.

True, virtually every country imposes some restrictions on imports and coddles domestic businesses with incentives. Further, trade blocs provide privileges to members that put outsiders at a disadvantage. Industrial policies are being refitted to support national security imperatives, while government procurement preferences support domestic industries and the jobs they create.

That said, world trade remains robust. The World Trade Organization (WTO) sees the US$35 trillion in trade flows increasing by 3.3 per cent this year. A rash of beggar-thy-neighbour policies would jeopardise this outlook.

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Trump calls himself the “tariff man”. He sees tariffs as a good source of income and a weapon to protect US workers. He relishes escalating trade hostilities with Beijing. His call for an across-the-board tariff on all imports and reports that he is considering a 60 per cent levy on China fit into this “America First” agenda.

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