As China’s population falls, let us not forget there is a silver lining
- With every crisis, comes opportunities; with foresight and adjustment, economic and social engines can still drive positive and sustainable growth
China’s population is continuing to shrink, deepening concerns over the future of the global economic powerhouse and the wider world. But as the country ages with perhaps more demographic burden than dividend, there are also new opportunities for development and growth.
With strategic adaptations and adjustments in economic and social policies, there is still hope for the “China miracle” to prevail.
That the country’s population has dropped for the second year is hardly surprising. In fact, population growth has been slowing since 2016, with analysts linking it to the high cost of raising children, a greater pursuit of individualism and a diversified lifestyle.
According to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the overall number fell by 2.08 million last year to 1.4097 billion, down from 1.4118 billion in 2022. New births declined by 5.6 per cent to 9.02 million. This is the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people compared with 6.77 in 2022.
Whether the relaxation of the one-child policy and some family-friendly measures by individual municipal authorities will make a difference in the longer term remains to be seen. But the trend may not be easily reversed.
The doom and gloom that followed 2022’s first population drop in six decades may well intensify amid concerns over a possible economic and social time bomb fuelled by a dwindling workforce, less spending power, ballooning pensions and medical bills.
Globally, there may also be wider implications when the world’s second-largest economy struggles to propel sustainable growth and development.
China is not the only one downsizing, though. The United Nations predicts that dozens of countries will have a smaller population by 2050.
While the impact on global development is definitely a matter of concern, some studies show that population decline does not necessarily result in an economic downturn.
Well aware of the challenges arising from its demographic changes, China has been trying to cushion the economic and social impact.
This includes developing the “silver economy” amid an ageing society and aggressively investing in advanced technology, artificial intelligence and automation.
For instance, the country aims to become a robotics global power by 2025 under the Robot Plus Application Action Plan that seeks to increase the use of robots in manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, energy, healthcare, education and elderly services.
As the Chinese say, with crisis comes opportunities. With foresight and adjustment, economic and social engines can still drive positive and sustainable development.
