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Macroscope | Irresponsible brinkmanship puts Asia’s stability and prosperity at risk

  • Much of Asia’s growth in recent years has been built on a foundation of strategic stability, but that is under threat in a series of potential flashpoints
  • Leaders and policymakers must know it is dangerously irresponsible to risk lives and livelihoods in the hope of scoring points against their opponents

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A Chinese coastguard ship sails near a Philippine vessel in disputed waters in the South China Sea on October 4, 2023. The growing number of close calls between ships from the two countries in the South China Sea has raised concerns about an accident possibly spilling over into armed conflict. Photo: Reuters

For many years, Asia has seen the dawn break at the start of a new year on a land of relative peace and prosperity. This year, however, the morning sky is clouded with ominous signs of uncertainty and perhaps coming storms.

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This is unusual for a region which has been mainly at peace since the Vietnam war ended nearly 50 years ago and has been seen as a poster child for economic development ever since. Hong Kong-based security consultant Steve Vickers and Associates (SVA) said in analysis published on January 9 that geopolitical risks in Asia are “at their highest level in years, with significant implications for the business climate”.

The malaise is not confined to Asia or business, however. As the World Bank’s chief economist Indermit Gill put it on the release, also on January 9, of the latest Global Economic Prospects report, “Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity.”

As SVA noted, “much of Asia’s growth in recent years has rested on strategic stability”. Cooperation among states and businesses enabled the integration of manufacturing processes across national borders. This was also aided by stable and safe shipping and other transport ties.

However, what we see now is shipping being disrupted, and not only in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, which are vital to linking Asia with Europe. There are also threats closer to home in the shape of risks in the Taiwan Strait and in other Asia-Pacific sea lanes.

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