Politics, much like history, is witness to an enduring struggle between continuity and change. The EU-China summit was a noteworthy representation of this constant clash. It served as a pivotal juncture where both parties decisively choose change.
Beyond conventional negotiations, and despite pessimistic evaluations, the summit signified a mutual shift in perspective. There has been a strategic and deliberate move towards fostering deeper mutual understanding.
Fundamentally, the meeting represented an effort to prevent a descent into conflict. Strategic dialogues play a central role in alleviating tensions, reflecting a purposeful endeavour to both manage and mitigate potential difficulties. In a move towards pure realpolitik, the focus has transitioned from customary symbolic disputes over ideological subtleties and strategic posturing to core issues such as economic imbalances, geopolitical implications and trade relations.
The uncertainty over the ultimate success of these endeavours prompts the question of whether substantial change will truly materialise over time. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope in what has been on display. It seems that, on this occasion, Chinese and European leaders allocated political capital to critical issues in a strategic manner.
The European Union’s achievement can be examined from a threefold perspective. First, the EU has advanced as an independent geopolitical actor, at last projecting a unified voice in engagements with China.
In the pursuit of influence, the EU leadership grapples with the understanding that, as an international organisation, it differs fundamentally from a single country. Despite this complexity, the EU has showcased its capability to negotiate and interact.
Europe stands in a distinct battlefield compared to the United States and China, which are both pursuing global influence through technological supremacy. Categorising the US, China and the EU as equal geopolitical competitors is more closely tied to the EU’s well-established reputation as an economic powerhouse rather than a predominant global force. Occasionally, global expectations for the EU exceed its actual capacity.
Hence, the EU must solidify its position as a robust independent player, which requires two critical strategies. To begin with, it must advocate federal development – especially in the realms of foreign policy and common defence – recognising it as an undeniable necessity rather than a matter of preference or debate, as has been the case so far.
Second, the EU’s success in this new-found role is related to Chinese involvement in the war in Ukraine. The EU faces the crucial task of persuading China to adopt a stance on the conflict aligning with European interests. With the second anniversary of the war on the horizon, achieving this objective requires a diplomatic approach to ensure China’s engagement with Ukraine and Russia contributes to regional stability.
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French and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine
French and EU leaders urge China to ‘bring Russia to its senses’ and stop invasion of Ukraine
Third, the European economy confronts two overarching concerns: competitiveness and the urgent need to accelerate productivity. The structural trade imbalance with China serves as an impediment to tackling these issues, underscoring the necessity for adjustments.
China and Europe must better understand one another. Both regions grapple with complex vulnerabilities, in contrast to the adept prowess demonstrated by the US, particularly in the economic sphere.
China and the EU were each other’s second-largest trading partner in 2022. The complex economic interdependence accentuates the necessity for ongoing discussions. To balance these ties, careful management, safeguarding economic interests, addressing market access concerns, employing mutual de-risking policies and ensuring fair competition must all be discussed.
In addressing its shortcomings, the EU must develop its realpolitik maturity, steering clear of conflicts arising from uncertain investigations, such as those on Chinese electric vehicles. Acting on potential harm, rather than established evidence, jeopardises the EU’s image and legal standing. Its approach to Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) won’t resolve the issue.
The construction site of the China Contemporary Amperex Technology electric vehicle battery plant in Debrecen, Hungary on August 16. Hungary wants to become one of the world’s biggest suppliers for electric vehicles. Photo: Bloomberg
Instead, Europe’s leaders should focus on preventing the bloc’s future deindustrialisation. Prioritising a robust EV industrial strategy is paramount for a smoother green transition, one that offers European customers affordable options.
China has demonstrated a deeper understanding of EU concerns, confronting long-standing issues and adopting a more mature narrative. Rather than patronising the EU, it has acknowledged the proverbial elephants in the room. A stronger European economy is strategically imperative for cooperation, sustaining trade and preventing the exacerbation of China’s challenges, which include economic deceleration, a real estate crisis, an ageing society and youth unemployment.
Before the summit, China addressed trade pressure on Lithuania and facilitated visa-free entry procedures for nationals of five EU countries. These moves may have been the result of China’s growing concern about its relationship with the EU, possibly prompting Beijing to pave the way for the meeting and to try to balance visitor numbers.
The rectification of the Lithuania issue was a welcome development. Beijing’s economic pressure on Lithuania after the Baltic country permitted the opening of a Taiwanese office in Vilnius in 2021 was a misstep as actions against one EU member affect the 26 other states. Considering Europe’s observance of the “one China” policy, Beijing should not replicate such measures without rigorous negotiations beforehand.
The intricate landscape of 2024 does not allow room for mistakes, considering that economic factors and elections in Taiwan and the US could have significant repercussions, especially for China. Consequently, both the EU and China could emerge as stronger allies and even priority partners, provided there is reciprocity. Prioritising legitimate concerns and fostering a cooperative relationship, rather than a confrontational one, is in the best interest of both parties.
In a nutshell, the EU-China summit marks a crucial interval, reflecting a proactive effort to prevent conflict, shift towards realpolitik and mutually acknowledge interdependence. The meeting signified a willingness to explore new avenues.
Fighting climate change and addressing AI governance transcend domestic narratives. Both the EU and China must collaborate to create a harmonious global partnership.
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa is a geopolitics analyst with a specialisation in EU-Asia relations
