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Opinion | Putin loosens lid on nuclear tests as Russia steps back from test ban treaty
- While Russia is unlikely to resume full-scale nuclear testing on its own, its decision upsets the fragile balance between it, the US and China – and risks sparking a nuclear arms race
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Russia’s recent decision to repeal its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty has raised fears of the return of a nuclear arms race. While Moscow has said it does not intend to resume nuclear weapon tests, its decision erodes an already crumbling nuclear arms control regime.
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The treaty requires parties “not to carry out any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion”. Adopted in 1996 to halt the regular tests being conducted by the nuclear powers to assess the performance and safety of their weapons, the treaty aims to reduce radioactive contamination and mitigate a nuclear arms race.
Including Russia, 178 countries signed and ratified the treaty. But it has yet to enter into force as it is missing the ratification of six countries that have signed (China, the United States, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and now Russia) and three others – North Korea, India and Pakistan – that have not even signed it.
According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, signatory states are bound to observe treaty provisions even if it has not come into force. Since 1998, all nuclear powers, except North Korea, have maintained a moratorium on nuclear testing.
To ensure the performance and safety of their nuclear arsenals without conducting full-scale nuclear tests, countries rely on powerful computer simulations combined with laboratory-scale tests on their nuclear weapons. While these substitute methods allow for a satisfactory level of confidence in the reliability of nuclear weapons, from a purely technical perspective, full-scale nuclear tests will always provide a better assessment.
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Moscow’s decision to repeal its ratification of the nuclear test ban treaty invites doubts about its true intentions, against the context of a rising confrontation with the West. Is Russia preparing to resume full-scale nuclear tests to get an edge in the coming nuclear arms race?
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