Gwynne Dyer

Opinion | Why Israel’s ‘mighty vengeance’ is just what Hamas wants

Hamas’ leaders desperately want the de facto veto Palestinians once had on concessions other Arabs make to Israel, and this is the only way they might get it

Political considerations on the part of Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah all threaten to make an already bloody state of affairs even more dangerous

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Palestinians check destroyed buildings following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 8. Israel’s cabinet declared a “state of war” on Sunday after a massive surprise attack launched by Hamas. Photo: Xinhua

Gwynne Dyer

Published: 3:30pm, 9 Oct 2023

If you are wondering why Hamas launched its all-out assault on Israel on Saturday, I wrote it last week: “The Arab world has basically abandoned the Palestinians to their fate, whatever that may be. Six Arab countries have established diplomatic ties with Israel and several more, including Saudi Arabia, are on the brink of doing so.”

The attack is not “all-out” in the sense that Hamas expects to win, of course. It doesn’t even expect a seat at the negotiating table. But Hamas’ leaders desperately want to recover the de facto veto that Palestinians once had on the concessions other Arabs make to Israel, and this is the only way they might get it.

The “mighty vengeance” that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises to rain down on the Gaza Strip is exactly what Hamas actually wants – the mightier the better. The whole point is to get the Israelis to send its soldiers in on the ground because that’s when the casualties start going up steeply.

Hamas doesn’t care if 10 Palestinians die for every Israeli in the forthcoming operation, which is what will happen because Israel’s weapons are vastly superior and the fighting will happen in densely populated civilian areas. The dead Palestinians will all be martyrs, and their deaths will freeze Israel’s peace initiatives with other Arab countries.

The commanders of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) understand all this, but the political leaders who they must obey desperately need to wreak a “mighty vengeance” on Gaza. At least 700 Israeli civilians have been killed in their cars or in their homes, and the Israeli public expects and will accept nothing less than the traditional 10-to-one kill ratio.

There is the problem of the hostages the Hamas gunmen brought back to the Gaza Strip, but there’s no way the Israeli government will empty its jails of Palestinian prisoners to win their release. Netanyahu is probably doomed politically anyway for letting the attack happen, but his public would not forgive a mass release of Arab prisoners.