From Taiwan to Palau, the true threat of US pivot to Asia emerges
- Beijing’s strategic dilemma is that to counter US containment, it needs a free hand in the South and East China seas and into the rest of the Pacific. But the more it pushes, the more it antagonises neighbouring countries
A flight journey from Taipei to Palau covers quite a distance, of more than 2,300km. But, as Taiwanese news media reported this week, the island’s military last month took part in a live-drill with the US Army in the central Pacific island state to test the MIM-104F Patriot (PAC-3) missiles.
The news was no doubt planted by the Taiwanese government of Tsai Ing-wen to coincide with the high-profile White House summit with leaders of more than a dozen Pacific island states – of which Palau is a key strategic component. America’s militarisation of the Pacific is falling into place.
Patriot missiles are already part of Taiwan’s defence inventory, but Taipei and Washington signed a US$83 million contract last year to upgrade the defence systems. The Patriot Advanced Capability 2 (PAC-2) and PAC-3 Guided Enhancement Missiles (GEM) are among Taiwan’s existing arsenal. Though unreported, the US military presumably brought along new or upgraded versions of the missile systems for its Taiwanese counterpart to check out. The upgrades will reportedly be delivered over the next two years.
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But what is intriguing is that Palau, one of three so-called Freely Associated States (FAS) in the region with the United States, is increasingly being used for military training and weapon technology transfer with Taiwan.
If Taiwan is increasingly being prepared by Washington as a key hub in the “first island chain” of containment against China, the three FAS states form the second island chain in the central Pacific. Incidentally, Palau is one of Taiwan’s four remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific.
If you are a Pentagon general or a State Department strategist, that’s the connection that you would see and want to draw ever closer. And Washington has had the most willing joiners – Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party.
In February, the White House acknowledged that more US troops would be sent to Taiwan to train its forces. Tsai declared that the two militaries would cooperate “even more closely” … to “bolster military exchanges”. The joint live missile exercise in Palau last month is no doubt part of those exchanges.
What we are seeing may not be just exchanges, but operational integration between the Taiwanese and American militaries, with Palau providing the strategic ground.
Palau and neighbour Micronesia, as I have previously reported, have already signed a new deal enabling US warships such as those from the US Coast Guard to unilaterally enforce maritime regulations over the island states’ exclusive economic zones (EEZs). That is what Washington calls “the strategic denial right” to other countries to enter the EEZs, in direct breach of international law. The Marshall Islands is expected to sign off on a similar deal.
Together, the three EEZs form a maritime area the size of continental US. They reach and almost touch the EEZs of the Philippines and Indonesia. With them, the first and second island chains of containment will no longer be separated, but can be considered a geopolitically continuous theatre of operation in the event of a war with China. No wonder Washington is drawing Manila ever closer, including setting up or expanding military bases there.
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Whether it likes to or not, the Philippines is being drawn into Washington’s containment circles. And the more the Chinese fight with Manila over maritime rights and access, the more the latter will be pushed into the arms of Uncle Sam. That is Beijing’s fundamental strategic dilemma, not only with the Philippines but also its neighbours as well: to counter US containment, it needs a free hand in the South and East China seas and into the rest of the Pacific. But the more it pushes, the more it antagonises neighbouring countries that may prefer to sit on the fence in the rivalry between the US and China, but are being pushed into the US orbit.
Meanwhile, back to Palau. The tiny island state will play a key role besides that of being a military hub. Last year, at an event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, Palau Minister of State Gustav Aitaro said a war in the Taiwan Strait would block a major international shipping lane.
“If the conflict does arise, the next alternative route is through Palau to Japan,” he was quoted as saying. The US is clearly preparing for war.
Forget the “China threat”. The geopolitical reality is the “American threat” to China, right on its doorstep.
