Usman Haider

Opinion | Why Ukraine war stalemate gives US and Russia perfect chance to restart arms control talks

Tensions between the US and Russia are high as the war in Ukraine grinds on, but the slowing of Kyiv’s counteroffensive offers an opportunity for arms control diplomacy

Progress is possible if Washington and Moscow decouple the invasion from arms control talks and withdraw tactical nuclear weapons

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US President Joe Biden (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive for summit talks at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 16, 2021. Recent statements from both the United States and Russia suggest there is hope of renewed arms control talks between them, but making it possible for Biden and Putin to meet in person is crucial. Photo: AFP

Usman Haider

Published: 12:30am, 13 Sep 2023Updated: 1:47am, 13 Sep 2023

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been an atmosphere of pessimism surrounding arms control between the United States and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START treaty further increased tensions. It allowed arms control pessimists to dominate the narrative and effectively propagate their rhetoric.

The invasion and suspension together put the arms control framework on the back burner, triggering a situation for arms control proponents that had not been seen since the Cuban missile crisis. However, all is not lost. The present circumstances provide a perfect time for US-Russia arms control rapprochement because in every crisis, there is opportunity.

The historical record provides support for this argument. It was a surprise that the US and the Soviet Union were able to quickly negotiate and ratify an arms control treaty – the Partial Test Ban Treaty – within a year of the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. This serves as a reminder that the prospect of arms control holds promise, making this an opportune moment for the US and Russia to pursue fresh arms control agreements.

The present dynamics have some resemblance to the pre-detente era, when cooperation on arms control was almost negligible. However, as those volatile circumstances brought the leaders of two superpowers to the negotiating table, the tensions originating from the war in Ukraine can also compel Putin and US President Joe Biden to resume arms control talks and avoid potentially catastrophic outcomes.

A statement by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in June suggests there is hope for further arms control talks. He said that “rather than waiting to resolve all of our bilateral differences, the US is ready to engage Russia now to manage nuclear risks and develop a post-2026 arms control framework”. This shows that the US has agreed to negotiate without preconditions and proposed a road map for future arms control negotiations.

This proposal was the first of its kind after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was a shift from the previous US strategy of demanding Moscow comply with the New START treaty. Russia welcomed this gesture, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling Sullivan’s offer “important and positive” and hoping “it would be supported with steps that will be made de facto through diplomatic channels”.

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