Zhou Bo

Opinion | Ukraine war: how China can get the world to step back from nuclear Armageddon

Hope lies in getting nuclear powers to agree to a ‘no first use’ policy. If China can persuade the US, then Britain and France are likely to fall in line

The challenge is getting Moscow on board – which is likely to require Nato to agree to ‘no first use’ against Russia and back down on its eastward expansion

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Why you can trust SCMP

Zhou Bo

Published: 1:00am, 4 Sep 2023

No one knows how long the war in Ukraine will last. But everyone knows what the worst nightmare is: Russia unleashing nuclear weapons. The Russian leadership has repeatedly hinted at this.

Russian scholars such as Sergei Karaganov and Dmitri Trenin have recently joined the chorus, calling for tactical nuclear attacks on a Nato country, say Poland, to break “the West’s will” and convince them that Russia’s nuclear threats are no bluff.

By giving people pause, Russia’s nuclear deterrence seems to be working. But what if Moscow is not bluffing?

With the West nibbling away at its own red lines by sending more sophisticated weapons to Kyiv that were considered taboo at the beginning of the war effort, how can one rest assured that Moscow will not reach for nuclear weapons eventually?

The battle is in a stalemate. Kyiv’s attack drones have reportedly been found in Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned that “war is returning” to Russia. As the threat of an unspeakable horror against humanity looms larger, there is an urgent need to prevent a nuclear fallout.

Perhaps China can persuade the US to agree first to a nuclear weapons policy of “no first use”, which can then be joined by Britain, France and finally – hopefully – Russia.