Does Australia really want to be at the front line of US aggression against China?

The US is steering Australia towards becoming a bridgehead against China with AUSMIN promises of troops and help in producing guided missiles
Canberra must re-evaluate its commitment to the US Indo-Pacific strategy if it genuinely seeks peace, prosperity and regional stability

Imran Khalid

Published: 12:30am, 7 Aug 2023

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As Australia and the United States work to deepen their military alliance, two major undertakings from the 33rd Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) are set to drastically affect the balance of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.

One, the United States has pledged to augment its rotational troop presence at strategic military bases in Australia and send its nuclear-powered submarines on more frequent visits to the country. Two, the US has agreed to help cultivate Australia’s ability to make guided missiles.

These plans have sparked a maelstrom of media attention and public commentary. Despite this, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles is optimistic and hopes to see the production of guided missiles start within two years. “Australia at this moment has no better friend than America,” he said.

With the protracted war in Ukraine, the capacity to produce arms, such as missiles, has become a focal point, given the critical implications for global military stockpiles and supplies. Washington, deeply entangled in the Ukraine crisis while also focused on deterring China, is anxious over the vulnerabilities exposed in its military machinery – which has invoked uncertainty about its ability to sustain its military prowess and influence on the world stage.

The Ukraine conflict has highlighted the paramount significance of a seamless and uninterrupted supply chain in modern warfare, especially for ground-to-ground missiles. The complexities of this crisis are making increasingly clear the indispensable role of well-functioning ammunition distribution in maintaining tactical advantage and strategic efficacy on the battlefield.

It would appear the US aims to bolster its military capabilities by co-opting its Asia-Pacific allies into its defence industry production chain – ostensibly to address Ukraine’s ammunition shortage but, more crucially, to signal to Beijing its planning in waging a prolonged war in support of Taiwan if and when needed.

(Left to right) Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin attend a press conference after the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations at Government House in Brisbane, Australia, on July 29. Photo: EPA-EFE

The recent AUSMIN forum left no doubt that Australia has become Washington’s most preferred partner in the Asia-Pacific to counter Chinese influence. Marles’ “no better friend” boast corroborates this.

These developments reveal the US’ strategic manoeuvring to consolidate its military prowess and regional influence, leveraging alliances to flex its muscles against China, thereby shaping a narrative of assertive deterrence and geopolitical dominance.

As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve, ties between the US and Australia have taken an intriguing leap forward with AUSMIN, encapsulating a new chapter in their relationship – and also throwing up new challenges to the region’s peace and stability.

Ironically, while Australia has not encountered a genuine external threat for many decades, it has been involved in nearly every US-initiated war overseas. This raises concerns about its habitual support for American adventurism.

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By serving as a frontline base for Washington’s aggressive stance towards China, Australia seems to be tethering itself to a volatile path and placing the lit fuse in the hands of American policymakers as they continue their provocative approach towards China.

This entanglement raises questions about Australia’s strategic choices and the potential consequences of being drawn further into the tumultuous geopolitics orchestrated by the US. Australia’s role in this grand power play may ultimately expose it to unpredictable and adverse outcomes in the complex arena of global affairs.

Back in 2021, when Australia deepened its military alliance with the US and the United Kingdom under the Aukus agreement, concerns had been raised about its trajectory as a staunch supporter of American interests.

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The recent AUSMIN forum in Brisbane has only solidified Australia’s military collaboration with the US. In particular, by accepting US help to produce guided weapons, Australia has signified a heightened commitment to America’s military-industrial complex.

The array of ambitious defence cooperation blueprints unveiled at AUSMIN, meant to intensify Australia’s role as the US’ strategic military partner, helps Canberra to project its influence in the Asia-Pacific. But the deepening entanglement may also further bind Australia to the whims and geopolitical aspirations of the US, potentially entrenching Australia in conflicts not inherently its own and compromising its autonomy in foreign policy.

Australia must decide: Is China a friend or a foe?

It would seem that Canberra is unwittingly falling into the strategic quagmire of prioritising US interests over its own, paving the path to potential conflict with China.

The upgraded US-Australia military cooperation is widely seen as a concerted effort to counter China’s reach in the Asia-Pacific. Remarks by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after AUSMIN that the US and Australia are “opposing [China’s] efforts to disrupt freedom of navigation and overflight in the South and East China Seas” also laid bare the intention to oppose China’s military movements in the region – and a sharpening of focus on China.

Ultimately, Washington’s facilitation of Australia’s missile production capabilities suggests a more profound motive – to position Australia as a bridgehead for potential attacks against mainland China. Canberra must re-evaluate its commitment to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy if it genuinely seeks peace, prosperity and regional stability.

Aligning too closely with the US brings ramifications that warrant more careful consideration – if Australia wishes to safeguard its interests and autonomy.

Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan