July has been a busy month for diplomacy between the United States and China, with trips to Beijing by former US Federal Reserve chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as well as US climate ambassador and former secretary of state John Kerry. Also among the visitors was Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state and national security adviser who helped initiate rapprochement between Washington and Beijing with his secret trip to China.
All these visits came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his first trip to China last month, a visit I called a triumph for the US. Washington seemed to overcome Beijing’s resistance to holding further talks and did so without having to give ground on its stance towards China.
As a result, US-China relations are moving towards a “new normal”. CNBC described Yellen’s trip as setting “a new normal for the US-China relationship”. In its coverage of her visit, The New York Times used the headline “China and the US, still adversaries, are talking. That’s a start.”
These readings – which have the air of relief – are understandable given the levels of acrimony that both sides felt after the February incident of an alleged spy balloon from China being found in US airspace and subsequently shot down, bringing bilateral relations to a new low. This was despite the meeting between President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali last November, which was supposed to bring follow-up actions to establish guard rails for the US-China relationship.
Tensions escalated even further in late May when a Chinese fighter jet forced a US reconnaissance plane in international airspace near China to fly through its wake turbulence. Only a couple weeks later, a Chinese warship came within 150 yards (140 metres) of hitting a US destroyer during operations in the Taiwan Strait.
In the wake of these incidents, Defence Minister Li Shangfu reiterated China’s refusal to hold talks with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. US officials have long been pushing for military-to-military talks, and both ministers were in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue at the time of Li’s statement.
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‘China will not challenge or replace the US’, Xi tells Blinken at crucial meeting
‘China will not challenge or replace the US’, Xi tells Blinken at crucial meeting
However, there is little expectation that this flurry of meetings in Beijing this month will produce a breakthrough in relations. In an interview with CNN last week, Blinken said he “was very clear” with Chinese officials in Beijing that “we will continue to do and say things that China will not like just as they’re going to continue to do and say things we won’t like”.
It is not hard to see what Blinken meant. The US has tightened the screws on China by imposing a series of sanctions on its ability to acquire semiconductor technology and manufacturing equipment, which one analyst quoted in The New York Times Magazine called “an act of war”. For its part, China has moved to enact export controls on germanium and gallium – key materials for making semiconductors and other electronics – saying the restrictions were necessary “to safeguard national security and interests”.
Still, the fact that the US and China both appear willing to move towards this “new normal” is worthy of applause. This means both sides have agreed to establish a floor and stop the steady erosion of bilateral ties.
When meeting Kissinger, Xi reiterated the positive message he put forward during his meeting with Blinken in June, saying, “China is willing to discuss with the US side the right way for the two countries to get along and promote the steady progress of China-US relations”. Kissinger reportedly responded by saying “The relationship between our two countries is a matter of world peace and the progress of human society.”
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China treats ‘old friend’ Kissinger to a lavish lunch
China treats ‘old friend’ Kissinger to a lavish lunch
China’s response might not be that surprising given the long-standing belief that time is on its side and that the East is rising while the West is crumbling. However, the US response is worth noting: there has been a shift in Washington’s thinking, from worrying about China threatening its interests to improved confidence that China’s rise might not be sustainable, so the US need not go to extremes in its containment efforts.
Recall that Larry Summers, an economist and former US Treasury secretary, said last year that China’s ageing population, slowing productivity and government control over business meant it was “now much less clear” whether China would ever surpass the US as the world’s leading economy.
Other events this year have fuelled the positive mood in Washington. India overtook China as the world’s most populous country, US tech firm OpenAI sent shock waves around the world with ChatGPT and, to the surprise of many, China’s economic performance this year has fallen well short of expectations.
That kind of new-found optimism could be seen in National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s speech last week at the Aspen Security Forum, where he pointed out that “there is a genuine possibility for a stable [US-China] relationship, even though that relationship is inherently competitive”. He also said the US is not aiming towards an “end state” but is looking “to establish a steady state that is fundamentally favourable to the interests and values of the United States and our allies and partners”.
A more confident-looking US now seems to be pursuing victory without war, in contrast to the years of brinkmanship thus far. This is likely to be welcome news to the large number of people fearful of a return to the era of devastating world wars.
They might well pray that whatever happens, peace will prevail. Or, as Kissinger put it when asked about an ideal position regarding China’s eventual rise, that it emerges “through the logic of events”.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics
