Opinion | Blinken’s visit may not deliver a breakthrough in US-China relations, but watch for positive ripple effects

Few are expecting any meaningful breakthroughs from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to China this week. The visit won’t reverse US positions on intellectual property, chip security, the South China Sea or Taiwan, but that’s beside the point.

The mere fact that the two sides are meeting at this high level is a sign the dangerously negative trend in the relationship has at least a chance of being repaired. Since US President Joe Biden met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia, last year, the two sides have found little common ground.

Heightened national security concerns have made relations spiral even lower with the shooting down of a Chinese balloon and a near miss between forces at sea. Blinken’s meetings, short of delivering major agreements, could still go a long way towards pulling back the bilateral relationship from going over a cliff. Any tangible results will be subtle, but they can have ripple effects through governments and in corporate boardrooms.

In the past few months, the Biden administration has expressed its openness to re-engage, only to be met with a cold shoulder from China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated in congressional testimony that “decoupling would be a big mistake” and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that “conflict is neither imminent nor inevitable”. The Biden administration is running a political risk of being seen as soft on China by agreeing to meet without a clear sign that something positive will come out of the talks.

On China’s part, the acceptance of this meeting is partly out of necessity. China desperately needs sentiment to improve among Western business executives. These talks will occur against the backdrop of significant economic stress. Foreign investment in China is falling and Chinese stocks are struggling.

On top of these are the rising difficulties for major international financial institutions, some of which have supported China for decades. These firms are now pulling out of initial public offerings and finding China a much tougher environment in which to operate.