What the UN got wrong about China’s and India’s populations
- The United Nations’ premature declaration that India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country calls into question the reliability of its projections
- Moreover, the UN’s support of harsh population control policies in the two countries in the past does not reflect well on the organisation
According to India’s most recent census data, the country’s population stood at 1.03 billion people in 2001 and 1.21 billion in 2011. The UN’s 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) report, however, put these figures at 1.08 billion and 1.26 billion, respectively. Moreover, India’s National Family Health Survey indicated a fertility rate of 1.99 births per woman in 2017-19, in contrast to the WPP’s estimate of 2.16.
India’s development indicators have improved markedly since its previous census. From 2011 to 2021, the country’s infant mortality rate fell from 44 deaths per 1,000 live births to 27. The secondary-education gross enrolment rate rose from 66 per cent to 78 per cent, and the mean years of schooling among adults aged 20 and older increased from 5.8 years to 7.2 years.
The contraceptive prevalence rate rose sharply from 54 per cent in 2013-15 to 67 per cent in 2017-19. Consequently, India’s fertility rate may be as low as 1.6 to 1.7 in 2024, with its population ranging between 1.37 to 1.39 billion, compared to the 1.44 billion projected by the UN.
Likewise, the 1996 report projected the Chinese population would increase to 1.52 billion by 2050, but the 2008 report revised this forecast to 1.42 billion and the 2022 edition further reduced it to 1.31 billion. When it comes to 2100, the 2019 WPP projected a population of 1.06 billion, but the 2022 report adjusted this to 767 million.
Chinese demographers, state organs call for drastic changes to boost births
Should India’s 2024 census reveal that its population is significantly smaller than the WPP’s projections, the reliability of the report’s projections for other countries would be called into question, further discrediting the survey as a credible source for studying the world economy.
After India, the UNFPA shifted its attention to China, providing US$50 million in 1979 – a substantial sum given that China’s foreign-exchange reserves at the time totalled just US$167 million. The funds were used to implement China’s one-child policy under the iron fist of health minister Qian Xinzhong. In 1983, a UN committee comprising ten member states (with the UN secretary-general and UNFPA’s executive director as ex-officio members) presented the first UN Population Award to Gandhi and Qian, in recognition of their contributions to population control.
Both China and the West face an ageing population crisis that could threaten their stability. While this crisis was partly caused by the UNFPA’s support for population control, the agency’s tendency to create problems rather than solve them may reflect deeper organisational shortcomings. To grapple with the challenges of ageing populations and prevent a painful economic slowdown, the UN must undertake significant reforms of its costly, inefficient and often inaccurate demographic bodies.