Opinion | How Antony Blinken’s visit can bring some stability to volatile US-China relations

This article was written and scheduled to publish before Antony Blinken suspended his planned visit to China over the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon floating above Montana. However, at the time of publication, a State Department official told reporters that “the secretary indicated that he would plan to travel to the PRC at the earliest opportunity when conditions allow”.

The visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – the first by a top US diplomat in five years – comes at a critical point as US-China relations stand at the precipice of long-term enmity. Blinken’s trip could prevent this by putting the relationship on a more stable and sustainable path. Importantly, he walks into these meetings at a moment of unique leverage to do so.

While modest expectations are always healthy, Blinken nonetheless has the opportunity to offer a vision for the relationship, gain meaningful cooperation on US priorities and open channels of dialogue critical to managing intensifying competition. Without this progress, the relationship will veer into unbridled competition that increases the risk of accidents and even intentional conflict.

Beijing faces serious challenges abroad and at home in ways that make it receptive to putting US-China relations on a more stable footing. Blinken’s challenge is to maximise this window of opportunity.

Externally, China’s relationship with the US, Europe and developed Asia has become highly stressed. China faces criticism and creeping isolation from all sides.