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Opinion | Why the US is better placed to beat inflation than most other economies

  • Today’s global inflationary surge is fuelled by a mix of domestic demand, supply chain disruptions and the effects of the Ukraine war on fuel prices
  • The US is uniquely positioned to overcome this, owing to its relative energy independence, abundant immigrant labour and strong production capacity

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An aerial view of an ExxonMobile refinery near Joliet, Illinois, on March 7. The United States is less affected than Europe by soaring energy prices – a central driver of current inflation – because it is a net energy exporter. Photo: EPA-EFE
US inflation remained stubbornly high in August, with prices increasing at an annual rate of 8.3 per cent. While this higher-than-expected rise has disappointed some economists, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s commitment to raising interest rates – which he emphasised in his recent Jackson Hole speech – will surely dent US inflation by squeezing demand.
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And the prospect of imminent monetary tightening has helped to strengthen the dollar, which has breached parity with the euro and reached a 20-year high against the yen, easing import-led inflation.
But today’s global inflationary surge is fuelled by more than just domestic demand. Supply chain disruptions related to China’s restrictive zero-Covid policy, the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and fuel prices, and rising labour costs all play a part.

These supply-side factors largely fall outside what the Fed can control. The US economy, however, is uniquely positioned to overcome this particular species of inflation, owing to its relative energy and food independence, abundance of immigrant labour, strong production capacity, and access to the capital needed to maintain and increase domestic manufacturing.

For example, it is less affected by soaring energy prices – a central driver of current inflation – because it is a net energy exporter. In 2021, US energy exports reached 25.2 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), exceeding energy imports by about 3.8 quadrillion Btu.

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And in the first half of 2022, it exported more liquefied natural gas than any other country. Europe, by contrast, imported roughly 58 per cent of the energy it consumed in 2020. In fact, all 27 members of the EU have been net importers of energy since 2013.

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