Why Le Pen’s ‘France first’ populism threatens the nation, Nato and Europe

Le Pen promises voters simple solutions to highly complicated issues, and her victory would have far-ranging repercussions
As president, she would enact her version of Trumpism, threaten the Franco-Germany partnership and add France to the list of nations seeking to undermine the EU

Thomas O. Falk

Published: 1:30am, 23 Apr 2022

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The second round of the French presidential election on April 24 will require voters to make a radical choice between President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal agenda and Marine Le Pen’s populism. If Le Pen succeeds, Nato, Europe and France itself will change at the most inopportune time.

We have seen this film before. A presidential candidate embraces populism, devastates norms, abdicates decorum, considers alliances superfluous and seems uncomfortably close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The pandemic has exposed France’s structural problems. Le Pen promises voters simple solutions to highly complicated issues, and her chances of winning are better than they were five years ago.

During her previous campaign, she called for France to leave the European Union and the Schengen area and for a return to the franc. She now appears somewhat less extreme, but one look at her vision for France shows that her presidency would have a huge impact.

For one, Le Pen is not shy to emphasise that she seeks to transform the EU into a loose alliance of European nations – even if, as is usual with populists, she has yet to provide details of exactly how her plan could be achieved. She would also cut France’s contribution to the EU budget and has already announced her intent to withdraw from the EU’s “Green Deal”.

More importantly, with Le Pen as president, France would become the third member state, alongside Hungary and Poland, to actively try to undermine the EU. Several of Le Pen’s ideas are arguably in violation of European law, such as her plan to introduce permanent goods controls at national borders and thus restrict the free movement of goods.

Moreover, Le Pen seeks to implement her own version of Trumpism. Her manifesto calls for putting French law above European law and enshrining “national priority” in the French constitution, whereby the French will be given preference over foreigners in access to jobs, social housing and social assistance. Various government support funds would be reserved exclusively for the French.

One does not have to have studied European law to realise that such discrimination would violate the EU’s foundational treaties and inevitably lead to France being drawn into fundamental legal disputes with the European Court of Justice.

But there is more at stake than endless litigation. The future of Europe and the stability the continent has maintained largely through the Franco-German partnership are also in the balance.

Berlin and Paris have repeatedly led the way in times of crisis. In recent years, many reforms in Brussels were only implemented through close coordination between the two. A Le Pen victory would call into question the Franco-German tandem.

French President Emmanuel Macron and then German chancellor Angela Merkel seen on the grounds of Schloss Meseberg palace on June 29, 2020, in Gransee, Germany. Photo: Getty Images

Le Pen has already talked of refraining from systematic cooperation with Berlin. She even wants to withdraw French support for a permanent German seat on the UN Security Council, which raises the issue of security. Le Pen has said she plans to remove France from the Nato command structure. Although France would not withdraw from the transatlantic alliance entirely, it would undoubtedly distance itself.

The consequences would be enormous. Nato, which is in the process of strengthening its eastern flank and which has finally awoken from its “brain death”, as Macron put it in 2019, would once again be weakened, to Putin’s advantage.

Moreover, the common European position in the Ukraine war would also face an uncertain future. Le Pen and her colleagues in the European Parliament have always opposed sanctions against Russia. During this year’s election campaign, she has said Putin could become an ally of France if the war ended. The people of Bucha in Ukraine and every democrat in Europe would beg to differ.

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Ukrainian mother cries out for her son after identifying his body outside of Kyiv

However, as president, she would be able to block further EU sanctions against Russia or arms sales to Ukraine in the European Council. The united front against Putin may well collapse, shaking France’s relations with most of its allies and partners, who will continue to consider Putin as persona non grata.

This election truly matters. A Le Pen victory would strain the EU’s unity, break its cohesion and diminish its international relevance.

In times of uncertainty and war on the European continent, stability and responsible politics are required more than ever. Populism is never a valid answer, but it is now more than a mere nuisance to democracy’s foundations and values. It is a genuine threat to Europe, Nato and France itself.

Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst