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Opinion | Russia’s war on Ukraine: whatever happens next, China wins

  • China’s trade with a stronger or weaker Russia can only deepen, even as the fallout distracts the West from Asia
  • It is also an opportunity for China to push its Belt and Road Initiative, while Hong Kong could become a resurgent player by catering to Russia’s banking needs

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing on February 4. Photo: Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
I have covered Russia, Belarus and post-Soviet issues since 1997 and also worked as a translator of Russian to English. Unlike many Western journalists, for a long time I was impressed overall with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s performance.
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Many of his accomplishments, especially in his first 10 years, would be rather incredible for a leader of any nation: from the ashes of the USSR, Russia became not only a free-market economy but a proud nation, and this was strongly based on Putin’s personal efforts to draw on pre-Soviet Russian history and the Russian Orthodox faith.

In what could have become decades of lingering uncertainty, Putin brought Russians to believe in themselves and their nation. Under his oversight, the Russian economy in the early 2000s also became one where the average middle-class Russian enjoyed greater prosperity than ever in the history of the USSR.

Arguments for or against the second Chechen war and the annexation of Crimea can be made and numerous opportunities for diversifying the economy were ignored, yet overall, Putin’s performance has been impressive.
Until now, that is. For the sake of argument, even if Putin’s grievances with Ukraine can be accepted as valid, a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation and the brutality of that invasion on civilians cannot be justified.

02:12

Mariupol hospital bombing survivor gives birth to baby girl

Mariupol hospital bombing survivor gives birth to baby girl

Like many who work in Russian-focused arenas, I did not believe Putin would actually invade: he has implemented reverse applications of information warfare before, using actual military assets as an extension of disinformation campaigns to influence diplomacy, rather than the other way around.

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