Richard Heydarian

Opinion | To woo Asean, Russia needs to offer trade, not just arms

Over the past decade, Moscow has consciously pursued its own pivot to Southeast Asia, hoping to exploit booming markets and the space opened up by intense US-China rivalry in the region

Moscow’s recent vaccine diplomacy will help, and in the longer run it needs to build an economic relationship based on more than arms sales

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Richard Heydarian

Published: 8:45am, 24 Jul 2021Updated: 8:45am, 24 Jul 2021

Summing up the cold-blooded maxim of 19th-century Europe, a French officer declared, “There is no judge more equitable than cannons. They go directly to the goal...” Here in the 21st century, a resurgent Russia is following the same logic, using its state-of-the-art “cannon” and military technology to win over vital regions such as Southeast Asia.

Over the past decade, Russia has emerged as the leading supplier of armaments to the region, as Southeast Asian countries modernise their armed forces and diversify their strategic partnerships. More recently, the Eurasian power has also engaged in its own “vaccine diplomacy”, with President Vladimir Putin claiming Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is “as reliable as an AK-47” rifle.

In an era of Sino-US rivalry, the heirs of the Soviet empire are consciously presenting themselves as a benign yet resourceful alternative to the two superpowers. The special summit this month between Russian and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ chief diplomats signals a shared interest in deepening bilateral strategic relations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (left) and Asean Secretary Lim Jock Hoi meet in Jakarta on July 6. Photo: EPA-EFE/Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry

But Russia’s quest to regain its historic place of pride in Southeast Asia, once a major theatre of its Cold War rivalry with the West and Beijing, has been far from smooth.

To become a truly consequential power in the region, Moscow will have to overcome the perennial dearth in bilateral trade and investment relations with Southeast Asia and, more recently, deftly navigate its unwise entanglements with brutal regimes, most especially Myanmar’s junta.

Stretching across 11 time zones, from Vladivostok to Saint Petersburg, Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with direct borders with and vital interests in both the western and eastern extremes of the Eurasian land mass.

Beginning with Peter the Great’s southern and eastern push into Asian heartlands, an ostensibly “European” Russia increasingly became a major player in Asian geopolitics.