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As production shifts from China to Asean, Asia’s supply chains remain stronger than ever

  • As the ‘China +1’ strategy takes off, firms are moving some capacity to the Asean region, making it the new production hub
  • Far from heralding the end of Asian supply chains, recent challenges only highlight their centrality

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Workers perform quality checks on smartphones at the VinSmart factory at the Hoa Lac Hi-Tech Park in Hanoi, Vietnam, on September 25, 2019. Photo: Bloomberg

It’s easy to predict the demise of Asian supply chains. A fierce trade war. The threat of technology decoupling between West and East. A pandemic that led to global shortages. And then there is politics, with developed economies pushing to reshore production. Yet, despite all these challenges, Asia’s supply chains have simply adjusted and continue to thrive.

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The central driveshaft of the global economy, trade between the United States and China, remains disrupted. The average bilateral tariff is stuck at close to 20 per cent: a significant hurdle for businesses on tight margins.
Restrictions on technology transfers are creating crushing uncertainties in a region where one-third of exports are electronics. Meanwhile, the pandemic has led to shortages of everything from bicycle parts to semiconductors. Is manufacturing in Asia buckling?

Hardly. Asia’s supply chains remain highly competitive, churning out goods at prices and scale few other regions, if any, can match. A few companies have significantly cut their sourcing or manufacturing operations in Asia, and shifted operations elsewhere. But the business case for the region’s supply chains remains simply too compelling.

The US-China tariff tussle hasn’t brought bilateral trade to a halt. Despite the pandemic, which severely depressed demand, bilateral shipments last year were broadly unchanged from those in 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected. Trade with China amounted to about 15 per cent of US exports and imports last year, a level it has kept over the decade.

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China’s economy expands record 18.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021

China’s economy expands record 18.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021
This is in part because US shipments to China picked up, even as purchases fell short of the much-maligned phase one deal that committed China to buying more from the US, especially agricultural goods and energy. And US imports of Chinese goods rose again last year to more than 18.6 per cent of all imports, down by just three percentage points since 2017.
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