Winston Mok

China census underlines the need to go all out on pro-birth policies

The shrinking working-age population and continuing fall in birth numbers should shake policymakers out of their belief that postponing retirement will be adequate in averting a crisis

Hukou reform will also help, but encouraging families to have children – with an array of carrots and sticks – remains China’s best bet

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People cross the street in Shanghai on May 11. China must make a whole-of-society push to raise the birth rate, and this must include making childcare more accessible to working families. Photo: EPA-EFE

Winston Mok

Published: 5:30am, 13 May 2021Updated: 6:08am, 13 May 2021

A declining number of births is common in the developed world. With its births continuing to fall, the US hit a record low total fertility rate of 1.6 in 2020, while South Korea saw the beginning of its population decline last year as deaths exceeded births.

China has averted a population decline for now. But with the closing gap between annual births and annual deaths, the crossover may be fast approaching – unless it can quickly introduce pro-birth initiatives.

The drivers for declining fertility – industrialisation, urbanisation and better education for women – are common in economic development. In East Asia, high urban density and intense work pressures have aggravated low birth rates from Singapore to Seoul. In China, expensive housing (in major cities) and the high cost of raising a child also deter people from having a family.

China’s reversal of its one-child policy in 2015, implemented only after a decline in its working-age population, was too little, too late – perhaps by a decade. The new policy of allowing two children has resulted in far fewer additional births than hoped for. The number of births fell again last year, to 12 million.

However, Chinese are living longer, with urbanisation and better health care. In the past two decades, China’s life expectancy has increased by five years, from 71.7 in 2001 to 76.9 in 2019. As a result, China has yet to see its population decline despite its fertility rates being below the replacement level of 2.1. China’s life expectancy still has room to grow, in light of Hong Kong’s 85 years, the longest in the world.