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Diplomacy
OpinionComment
Zhou Bo
Zhou Bo

Opinion | Why US-led, anti-China Quad is either meaningless or doomed to failure

  • If the Quad is against China, the glue that binds the group is not strong enough, and if it is not, then there is no need for its existence
  • Unless the Quad takes common strategic issues in the region as its driving force and becomes inclusive, its future is not bright

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Illustration: Stephen Case
Zhou Bo
The largest question hovering over the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia and India is what exactly it is.
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Initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the forum did little to coordinate policy in the Indo-Pacific. This is why when US President Joe Biden hosted the first virtual Quad summit on March 12 with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, it caught the world’s attention, especially the announcement of a “Quad Vaccine Partnership” that committed to providing at least 1 billion doses of vaccine to Southeast Asia.

However, this summit is not necessarily a springboard to success. As if to indicate that it is a concert of democracy, the Quad’s catchphrase is a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. But when has the Indo-Pacific not been open and free? Security challenges, including piracy, terrorism, territorial claims, illegal fishing and criminal trafficking, are not new, and they are not exclusive to the Indo-Pacific. 

Since 2008, the most outstanding problem affecting the security of the international sea lanes in the region has been piracy in the waters off the Horn of Africa. This problem has been largely resolved thanks to the joint efforts of some 25 international navies in line with UN Security Council mandates.

The Quad is really about China, even if China was not explicitly mentioned in the summit. The problem is that if the Quad is against China, the glue that binds the group is not strong enough. If it is not, then there is no need to establish the Quad at all. 

02:14

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow
Let us start with the worst possible scenario. Should a conflict arise between China and the US in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, Japan and Australia would struggle to figure out how to fulfil their obligations as American allies without burning their own hands.
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