Advertisement

The US dollar’s draw as a safe haven is likely to end when the coronavirus crisis does

  • For as long as the Covid-19 pandemic rages on, dollar dominion is not in doubt
  • But if US economic data continues to deteriorate and the Fed comes under pressure to adopt a negative rate, investors will look for better returns elsewhere at the first opportunity

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
The skyline of midtown Manhattan, New York, is seen from Hoboken, New Jersey, on May 7. The continuing fallout from the coronavirus may trigger a collapse in US growth and send US interest rates into negative territory, putting pressure on the dollar’s safe-haven status. Photo: AP
It is one of those immutable laws of investing that, when the chips are down and the world is fraught with risk, it’s advisable to stick with the US dollar as the safest place to park your money. The past few months has been no different, as the coronavirus crisis has deepened and the dollar has outshone all else as a beacon of safe haven security.
Advertisement

All investors want is capital protection, a reasonable rate of return and a good chance of getting their money back on time.

There is no such thing as a safe one-way bet in financial markets and, at some stage, the appetite for risk will return, investors will start to push their luck and the dollar will eventually lose its lustre. While the coronavirus continues to rage, dollar dominion is not in doubt. The only question is for how long.

There’s certainly no shortage of detractors eager to write off the dollar as a has-been currency, fit for the scrapheap. The return to near-zero US interest rates, the Federal Reserve’s newly rebooted quantitative easing and the eye-watering Treasury bonds issuance needed to pay for economic rescue have hardly done the currency any favours.
Sources: Datastream, New View Economics
Sources: Datastream, New View Economics
Advertisement

But the dollar is not alone; the Japanese yen, the euro, the British pound and a whole host of other currencies have all had their fair share of problems.

Advertisement