Opinion | With Japan caught out by Covid-19, the Tokyo Olympics will be a challenge

As Japan recorded a third death among passengers who were on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the limitations of Tokyo’s response to the outbreak are becoming clear; it has all been very ad hoc.

Japan initially imposed an entry ban only on Chinese passport-holders from Hubei province (whose capital, Wuhan, is where the outbreak started) and foreigners who had been in Hubei up to 14 days before. The ban was later extended to include the neighbouring Chinese province of Zhejiang but it was a classic case of “too little, too late”. Not banning visitors from the whole of mainland China has put Japan at unprecedented risk.

Why did Tokyo fail to gauge the risk? First, it was a new situation for the government and it is very clear now that it had underestimated the risks from the outbreak. The coordination between various wings of the government has also been lackadaisical, to say the least.

Second, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have been unwilling to annoy Beijing before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit later this year. Abe, who has been trying hard to reset ties with China, visited last October to mark the 40th anniversary of the Sino-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship.

Third, mainland China is Japan’s biggest source of tourists and they are big spenders as well. Japanese businesses have a lot riding on these tourists and Abe may have been unwilling to upset the applecart.

A huge challenge lies ahead for Japan with the Tokyo Olympics scheduled for this summer. Some countries, such as Israel, are already barring visitors who have been to Japan or South Korea (besides China) within 14 days previously. As of last Friday, nine countries – Israel, the Solomon Islands, Thailand, Samoa, Tonga, Micronesia, Kiribati, South Korea and Bhutan – had issued advisories against travel to Japan.