Opinion | As US-China rivalry heats up, the days of not choosing sides may soon be over for Southeast Asia
- Both powers have given Asean states reason to doubt their commitment to the region. Under pressure to align with the interests of one or the other, Southeast Asia’s policy of studied neutrality looks increasingly untenable
An ongoing debate on US-China relations surrounds whether American engagement with China was wrong or if there should be efforts by Washington and Beijing to re-engage, or at least agree to some form of mutual accommodation. For Southeast Asia, renewed Sino-American cooperation promises to ease strategic pressure and even prevent conflict between Washington and Beijing.
Such outcomes are clearly welcomed by countries in Southeast Asia who have benefited from US-China collaboration. However, just as it is impossible to turn back the clock on four decades of history, conditions for US-China convergence appear absent. Southeast Asia may be better off considering their options on how to deal with a harsher future.
For the US, China and Southeast Asia to move forward on a more positive trajectory, the two leading powers need to address commitment and trust problems that afflict them both. Questions of commitment and trust are relevant for major powers, given the relatively low cost of reneging on promises; they may be especially acute with today’s United States and China.
Doubts over whether Washington and Beijing will keep to undertakings they make remain considerable for putative partners in Southeast Asia as well as for each other. Indeed, there may be good reason for qualms about the political will in Beijing and Washington to make meaningful concessions.
