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Opinion | Truth is, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act changes nothing for protesters and their hopes
- US sanctions have a poor record of spurring democratic change and the threat of removing Hong Kong’s special status is unlikely to be carried out until the city is beyond rescue anyway. The act changes nothing, certainly not Hong Kong’s political tide
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Celebrations began almost immediately as word spread that United States President Donald Trump had signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. In a rare display of bipartisanship, US Congress voted for the legislation with near unanimous support. Hundreds gathered in Hong Kong’s Chater Garden, waving American flags to thank the US government for its support.
Now that Trump has signed the legislation, protesters might wonder what comes next? Unfortunately, the answer is nothing. At least, nothing significant that might turn the political tide in Hong Kong.
The act, which requires an annual human rights review, allows potential sanctions on government officials, and prohibits sales of crowd control equipment. Those provisions will not limit Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor from quelling protests.
This type of sanctions legislation has a long history of failing to promote democratic political change. Decades of US sanctions on Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela have done little to change reality on the ground in these countries. Their leadership continues to survive while repression remains the norm.
In Venezuela’s case, President Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite a near-complete economic collapse including food, medicine and power shortages, and being cut off from the international financial system, forcing the country to barter. Despite every attempt to influence events and even Trump’s open support of Maduro’s main political opposition, Juan Guaidó, nothing has changed.
Consider, too, the extensive US sanctioning regime in place on individuals and corporate entities in Russia. While many companies and oligarchs have been effectively cut off from the US, domestic political reform has stalled. Moscow has managed to run massive disinformation campaigns targeting the US, again without major consequences.
Brian P. Klein (@brianpklein) is a geopolitical and economic strategist and former US diplomat.
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