The German, Chinese and EU flags fly in Berlin, Germany, in readiness for German-Chinese bilateral government talks last year. Just as Germany sits at the centre of the EU, China could one day be the leader of a future Asian Union – if it heeds the lessons of history. Photo: EPA-EFE
Opinion
Opinion
by Andrei Lungu
Opinion
by Andrei Lungu
As China seeks a prosperous and peaceful rise, 20th-century Germany has lessons to offer
After two unsuccessful world wars, Germany finally achieved its dream of European leadership by rejecting nationalistic hard power and embracing compromise
China can do the same in the Asia-Pacific by giving up hard power and extending cooperation, free trade and economic liberalism
On Sunday, the world commemorated 80 years since Germany’s invasion of Poland, which kicked off World War II. It was Germany’s second attempt in just three decades to install itself as Europe’s ruler, and it left both Germany and the continent in ruins.
Eight decades later, Europe is the world’s most peaceful and prosperous continent, integrated in a tight political and economic union. At its centre sits the undisputed leader of the European Union, Germany.
It is the EU’s economic and political driving force, the largest trading partner of almost all EU members, and German companies dominate the European market. On July 16, former German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen was elected president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch. A German finally leads Europe.
For Chinese leaders who are keen observers of history, no story is more important and instructive than that of 20th-century Germany. Germany and China share an essential geopolitical feature: both are, unambiguously, the leading powers of their region, yet neither is large enough to dominate its region through sheer military strength.
Modern Germany was forged through “blood and iron” under chancellor Otto von Bismarck. As Germany grew richer and more powerful at the start of the 20th century, it wanted to impose itself as the hegemon of Europe. But Germany lost the first world war because it confronted a wide coalition of enemies.
Just 20 years later, Germany was at it again, but while it was clearly the most powerful European country, it found itself incapable of defeating all its enemies, who banded together to resist the aspiring hegemon.
The consequence was the complete defeat and destruction of Germany, which was partitioned by the four winning powers, the ultimate humiliation.
The story could have ended there. But Germany was lucky: its occupiers had no interest in keeping the country poor or divided among themselves. Western Germany was accepted back in the community of nations, this time as a liberal democracy.
European flags in front of the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, last year. The EU’s predecessor, the European Coal and Steel Community, was formed in 1952, after the second world war. Photo: EPA-EFE
The second world war also taught German and European leaders a clear lesson and they vowed to avoid another cataclysmic war. The EU was born, first as a simple European Coal and Steel Community, but with the dream to one day create a political union to make war on the European continent unthinkable. Germany willingly abandoned its militaristic mindset and accepted this new European paradigm.
This proved to be Germany’s wisest decision. The German political elite of the early 20th century would have dreamed to see a German defence minister control a European political body. The dream was achieved, not by blood and iron, but by political compromise, peace and economics.
Ursula von der Leyen, until recently Germany’s defence minister, heads to a helicopter to fly to Kabul, Afghanistan, on March 26, 2018. This July, she was elected president of the European Commission. Photo: AFP
Half a century of militarism could not secure Germany’s domination of Europe. It was only when Germany demilitarised and abandoned all nationalist or geopolitical ambitions that it attained its rightful place in Europe.
Today, Germany is a peaceful, prosperous, democratic, secure and stable country, accepted and acknowledged by European states as the continent’s most powerful and influential country.
Germany had to abandon nationalism and hard power to achieve prosperity, influence, respect and even admiration from its old enemies. This is Germany’s lesson for China.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands ahead of a bilateral meeting in Paris, on March 26. Photo: EPA-EFE
Today, China is in a similar position to that of Germany at the dawn of the previous century: a rising great power, with an ever more powerful military and expanding geopolitical demands. But if China decides to walk the path of hard power, it will find itself challenged by a coalition of countries, such as Japan, Vietnam, Australia, India, or the United States. The German story shows very clearly where this road leads.
But the German story also offers hope and a road map for China, which can end up dominating the Asia-Pacific, accepted as the region’s greatest power, while also becoming a secure and prosperous country.
To do this, Chinese leaders need to do what German leaders did after the second world war: give up nationalistic ambitions and the mindset of hard power, abandon military expansion, compromise with neighbours, assuaging their fears and cooperating to build an Asian economic and political community over the next decades.
Only when Chinese leaders abandon their propensity to solve political issues through hard power, while embracing compromise, cooperation, free trade and economic liberalism, will China find its place in the sun.
Then, China will be respected and admired throughout Asia and the world, Chinese people will enjoy prosperity and friendship across the region, Chinese companies will dominate Asian markets, and Chinese leaders will have the influence to shape the Asia-Pacific. One day, a Chinese might be elected as the leader of a future Asian Union.
Developments in China and its neighbourhood over the past years risk turning this dream into an illusion. Big ships, rockets, advanced fighter jets and images of glorious victory in battle are exciting, but history is quite clear about where they lead.
When a nation invests billions in its military, it inevitably faces pressure to use it. If this is the path China treads, it might enjoy temporary victories but, decades from now, Chinese leaders will realise it was a mistake. China can have the future it wants and deserves. But only if it learns from Germany.
Andrei Lungu is president of The Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific
