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China will think long and hard before sending in the PLA – it needs the Hong Kong ‘experiment’ to work, and it wants Taiwan back
- There is still time for the violent protests to be reined in. Hong Kong remains an indispensable connector between mainland companies and the world, and the city stands as proof of China’s commitment to the market-driven global economy
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Why you can trust SCMP
There has been much hand-wringing in Hong Kong in recent days over the danger that impatient hardliners in Beijing will detonate the nuclear option, either unleashing the People’s Liberation Army garrison on pro-democracy protesters or trundling in thousands of People’s Armed Police, who have been amassing in a sports stadium in Shenzhen.
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Commentators have agreed that as demonstrations have become more violent and as local police efforts to quell the violence have proved ineffective, so the danger of mainland intervention has risen.
They have also agreed that the apparent cluelessness of the Hong Kong administration over how to calm the mood has raised the likelihood that mainland leaders will take charge.
But in the full knowledge that many will call me naive, I think we are many steps short of anyone on the mainland pressing those “nuclear buttons”. The danger cannot absolutely be ruled out, but it is a much more distant danger than many are now breathlessly discussing.
There are many reasons for Beijing to think not just once, but many times, before taking such steps. Some of these reasons have already been discussed, but a few of the most important seem not to have occurred to most commentators.
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