No prospect of China isolating itself from global economy

Raslan cited long periods of “isolationism” during the Ming dynasty, in support of his assertion that Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative” might come to an abrupt halt when China turns inward, as it did in centuries past.

He seems to forget that the events he described happened six centuries ago. China, and indeed the planet, have changed quite a bit since then. From 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organisation to 2016, its gross domestic product soared from 11 trillion yuan (HK$12.5 trillion) to 74 trillion yuan, a 600-plus per cent increase over 16 years.

China’s exports and imports surged from US$510 billion in 2001 to US$4 trillion in 2015, an eight-fold rise over 15 years. The achievement made China the world’s No 1 trading nation.

Chinese direct investments overseas exceeded US$200 billion last year, outstripping inbound investments. In addition, belt and road-related outlays by the Chinese government and corporates are projected to exceed US$1 trillion by 2030.

No sane Chinese leader would cut the country off from the outside world. It would be economic suicide for China, and political suicide for its leaders. It would also be very unlikely for the central government and businesses to walk away from trillions of dollars of investments abroad.