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The View | Xi Jinping can dramatically reform China’s economy or maintain high growth – but he can’t do both

  • Yu Jie says Xi’s recent statements on sweeping reforms with ‘top-level design’ from the party indicate an indecisive economic approach China can’t afford now

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, in marking the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening-up policy, called the Communist Party’s leadership fundamental to “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Photo: Xinhua
On December 18, President Xi Jinping summoned a grand gathering for the 40th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping’s landmark reform and opening up, attended by the most important Communist Party cadres, entrepreneurs and Olympic champions, to reveal China’s next steps in its reform agenda for the coming decades.
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The event took place after a tumultuous 2018, where China found itself fighting an economic slowdown coupled with an unexpected and enduring trade war with Beijing's most important economic and strategic partner – the United States. Those two difficulties are intrinsically intertwined.

Xi’s 1½-hour speech offered little in the way of concrete solutions to these two imminent challenges, but he conveyed two clear messages. Firstly, a return to the Cultural Revolution will be resisted. Neither of his two predecessors openly denounced that decade-long trauma as Xi did, loudly, both as an affair of state and as a matter of personal tragedy for his family.

Secondly, China must continue to reform for its own sake. A more pluralistic China would be better prepared to handle the highs and lows of the economic development model the country has chosen.

However, what remains critically unclear is to what extent the party would intervene in the market to carry forward the reform which Xi has in mind. Instead, he dictated in his remarks that Deng’s ethos for reform – “crossing the river by feeling the stones” must be combined with “top-level design”; in other words, the party decides everything.

The centrality of the party causes confusion and is reflected in domestic economic adjustments. Xi advocates supply-side reforms but invites the party to interfere in the market. He campaigns for reform of state-owned enterprises but strengthens party committees’ control of business decisions in both state and private enterprises.
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