Opinion | India and Pakistan take note: the ‘Madman Theory’ of using tactical nuclear weapons lives up to its name

Last month, when much of the world was distracted by the US-North Korea summit in Hanoi, one of the most dangerous crises in the post-cold-war era quietly unfolded. 

When Indian warplanes conducted air strikes against a terrorist training camp in Pakistan on February 26, it marked the first time in history that a nuclear-weapons state has conducted air strikes against another.

The stand-off quickly spiralled out of control. Pakistan responded to India’s air-assault with heavy artillery strikes and air strikes of its own. Both sides lost aircraft, with Pakistan claiming to have shot down two Indian jets and captured one of the pilots, while India claimed to have downed a Pakistani jet. Fortunately, the capture of the Indian pilot proved to be a positive turn in the crisis, which allowed Pakistan to leverage his release as a “peace gesture” that helped defuse tensions.

India and Pakistan possess two of the fastest-growing nuclear arsenals in the world. According to Hans Kristensen, of the Federation of American Scientists, India possesses roughly 140 nuclear weapons while Pakistan has around 150. Particularly alarming is Pakistan’s growing inventory of low-yield, tactical nuclear weapons. According to Kristensen, these weapons are part of an effort “to create a full-spectrum deterrent that is designed not only to respond to nuclear attacks, but also to counter an Indian conventional incursion onto Pakistani territory”.