Taiwan’s dream of having its own submarine fleet must yield to a more realistic China defence plan

Emanuele Scimia says quite apart from the forbidding price tag, the problem of technology access and the sheer imbalance in firepower when compared with China’s naval assets are challenges Taipei is unlikely to overcome

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Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen inspects the inside of a submarine at the Zuoying naval base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, in March last year. The Taiwanese government wants to build eight diesel-electric submarines to bolster its four outdated vessels. Photo: EPA / Taiwan Military News Agency handout

Published: 11:15am, 19 Jul 2018Updated: 8:46pm, 19 Jul 2018

According to recent media reports, foreign shipbuilders have offered Taiwan hull designs for its indigenous defence submarine programme. Taiwanese Defence Minister Yen Teh-fa dismissed similar rumours in May, denying that 200 US naval specialists would take part in the submarine project.

It is unlikely that the United States, Japan, India or Europe will risk damaging ties with China by providing Taipei with submarine technology.

This is particularly true of countries in Europe. It is not by chance that, in the joint statement of the 20th EU-China Summit, held in Beijing on Monday, there is no reference to the Taiwan issue, even though the document does include a paragraph on the disputed South China Sea, as “soft” as it looks.

But even if Taipei did manage to procure a foreign design, its submarine programme could prove economically, technically and strategically unfeasible. The Taiwanese government aims to build eight diesel-electric submarines to bolster its four outdated vessels.

They should serve as an asymmetric asset to deter a potential invasion from the mainland. Beijing has ramped up naval sorties around the island since Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, took over as Taiwan’s president in 2016. Communist China considers Taiwan a rebel province that must be reunited with the mainland, if need be by force.

Taiwan’s dream of having its own submarine fleet must yield to a more realistic China defence plan

Emanuele Scimia says quite apart from the forbidding price tag, the problem of technology access and the sheer imbalance in firepower when compared with China’s naval assets are challenges Taipei is unlikely to overcome

Watch: PLA Air Force conducts drills around Taiwan