Opinion | Can Kim Jong-un become North Korea’s Deng Xiaoping? Only if Donald Trump doesn’t get in the way

South Korea probably endured more political turbulence than almost any other country in 2018. On the domestic front, the new liberal government of President Moon Jae-in forged ahead with measures to address entrenched corruption, and implemented progressive (and hotly debated) economic policies to help low-income people. But these important changes were dwarfed by the wave of disruption from abroad.

Few South Koreans had expected that US President Donald Trump would show such determination in undermining the post-war liberal international order. That order has served as a foundation for Korea’s economic growth and democratic development since the 1960s.

After Trump’s April 2017 threat to “terminate” the “horrible” free-trade agreement which for a decade has backstopped a strategic alliance with the United States that has lasted for more than half a century, South Koreans were relieved to see Trump and Moon sign a revised deal in September. Still, the Trump administration’s trade war with China is certain to strike a severe economic blow to South Korea.

On a more positive note, fears of a military conflict on the Korean peninsula have subsided. In November 2017, some US foreign policy experts put the chances of a war with North Korea as high as 50 per cent. Yet today, the US and South Korea are working with the North to find a viable formula for denuclearisation and a lasting peace.

In this regard, 2018 was a pivotal year. The transition from crisis to diplomacy began when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un responded favourably in a New Year’s address to overtures from Moon; but it owes much of its momentum to Trump’s bold political approach.