Finding sufficient land won’t solve Hong Kong’s housing crisis on its own, and it may not even be the most pressing issue

This week, the government’s Task Force on Land Supply launched a public consultation revealing 18 proposals on where it believes the best opportunities are to free up land for housing. The hope is that this “big debate”, as coined by the chief executive, will lead to societal consensus on what land is deemed acceptable to develop. The question of where to find land dominates the housing affordability discussion. But is the exclusive focus on land the most useful approach and are the right questions being asked? 

Understanding the impediments to converting land for housing requires an honest appraisal of existing usage, institutional impediments and the influence of vested interests. In September 2017, in a process facilitated by our institute, a team of Hong Kong’s best and brightest young professionals analysed the landscape and produced a comprehensive set of recommendations. Since then, the landscape has not changed much. 

With the objective of identifying land in urban areas supported by existing infrastructure, the investigation revealed that measures to unlock underutilised land could free up 4,379 hectares and provide around 2.9 million units, six times the government’s stated requirement of 460,000 units over the next 10 years. If just 28 per cent of this were unlocked, it would satisfy the shortfall of 1,200 hectares for residential development with all necessary auxiliary services by 2046. It would do so without reclaiming land or cutting into country parks in any way.

There has been continued debate over the accuracy of the government’s estimated land requirement. Our Hong Kong Foundation estimates a need of over 9,000 hectares over the next three decades while Professor Roger Nissim believes we do not have a shortage of land for development in Hong Kong. Even the Task Force is questioning the projections.