Donald Trump has a point – even with advanced technology, manufacturing is essential

Spring is the season of big meetings – Davos, Boao and, coming this weekend, the Spring Meetings of the IMF/World Bank in Washington. Here, the Davos men (and increasingly women) gather with the central bankers, ministers of finance, bankers, policy wonks and academics to debate the state of the world. These are often casts of thousands, listening to the latest guru expounding on technology, politics, trade and finance.

I was at a conference in Italy last week, where the mood was dominated by news of the US-China trade war, better described as the opening skirmishes with more posturing than action. The underlying worry was whether the unfolding war would result in more collateral damage and have a bigger impact on everyone else.

Italy has just emerged from a confusing election result with no clear consensus about who will form the next government. The Hungarian election results this week showed that, in Europe, far-right populist sentiments are gathering momentum. In France, reformist President Emmanuel Macron is now battling the railway unions to get serious labour reforms going. This is a reminder of how Margaret Thatcher took on the British unions in the early 1980s and won.

Unfortunately, there are no Thatchers left in the United Kingdom, only the messy aftermath in which a divorcee is left holding a very large bill. One guru gloomily forecast that Britain may soon have its first Marxist prime minister in Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The IMF traditionally offers an important World Economic Outlook forecast at the Spring Meetings. This year, the basic outlook is expected to continue the fairly bullish view of a broad-based worldwide recovery with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. This week, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde exhorted Asians, who account for almost two-thirds of global growth, to “fix the roof while the sun is shining”.