US concessions on Korean peninsula could go a long way

Washington’s dismissal out of hand of China’ s recent proposal to halt military exercises by the US and South Korea in exchange for a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and missile tests was a missed opportunity, particularly given that the alternative path of a military response is fraught with peril.

The deployment of the anti-missile defence system THAAD in South Korea is a short-term fix with long-term risks. Whatever the marginal military advantage to be gained over the existing Patriot missile batteries, it must be weighed against the loss of Chinese willingness to exercise diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis North Korea, as well as Beijing’s own concerns that the system’s radar would lock onto its own strategic deterrent. Instead, deployment of THAAD should be made contingent on the success of Chinese efforts to achieve a missile moratorium with North Korea, while working with the People’s Liberation Army to minimise the impact on China’s strategic deterrent and/or eliminating the system altogether. As always, the devil is in the details.