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Hong Kong stocks ‘closer to the bottom’ after breaking 17,000-point floor, but trades are only for the brave, strategist Hong Hao says

  • Outspoken China market strategist says Hang Seng Index is closer to the bottom than the top after a 28 per cent beating this year
  • Trade is only for the brave as market is still plagued with geopolitical challenges

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Hao Hong, market strategist and chief economist at Grow Investment Group. Photo: Xiaomei Chen
Hong Kong stocks are closer to the bottom than the top after a 28 per cent rout that erased more than US$1 trillion of equity wealth this year, making them attractive by most yardsticks. Even so, the market is not for the faint-hearted, market strategist Hong Hao said.
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Myriad problems plaguing the local market since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic have refused to go away, including China’s zero-Covid strategy, the US-China audit and technology spats, and the threat of global recession stoked by aggressive interest-rate increases in the US and elsewhere.

“Hong Kong is cheap,” Hong, a market strategist and chief economist in Hong Kong at Grow Investment Group, said in an email on Tuesday. “But geopolitical tensions and overseas market volatility will continue to distress Hong Kong. That is the reason why this is a trade for the brave.”

The Hang Seng Index sank 21 per cent to an 11-year low last quarter, and the sell-off has continued into this week with the benchmark tumbling below 17,000 points for the first time since October 2011. China has given its strongest hint yet that the zero-Covid policy is here to stay, while traders are betting on another jumbo US rate hike in November.

The 73-member Hang Seng Index has now lost 16,286 points, or 50 per cent of its points, in four years after peaking at 33,154 in January 2018, according to market data. It took the index 10 years to accummulate that points en route to its all-time high.

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Hong joined the Grow, a Chinese hedge fund, earlier this year after a controversial exit from Bank of Communications, where he won top ranking for his research. He added that the market is “so oversold that there should be a trade based on technicals”, given that all key indicators in Hong Kong and mainland China are in bearish zones.
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