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Georgina Lee

Deb Price

Welcome to Monday, traders, our second week of September.
The impact of protests on Hong Kong's businesses and economy continues to weigh on trading sentiment here. Overnight, a group of protesters set fire to the entrance of Central MTR station. Central, Wan Chai, Mong Kong and Prince Edward subway stations were closed, but were back open this morning.
Meanwhile, on Friday, after China markets closed, the People's Bank of China cut the cash reserve requirement for banks in the latest effort to boost the economy amid the trade war with the US. Also over the weekend, fresh data showed China's exports unexpectedly slid in August, as the trade war bites.
Catch up on the day's action below. If you have any feedback or questions about our blog, please shoot them to deb.price@scmp.com. Also, after numerous requests, we will start an experiment to send out the blog each day via email. If you'd like to get the blog that way, shoot Deb a message.
-- Georgina Lee and Deb Price in Hong Kong  


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Hong Kong stock market

Stocks Blog: China shares gain on liquidity injection; Hong Kong stocks slip after protesters set fire at MTR subway stop  

Protesters set a fire at Central subway station on Sunday, in the business heart of Hong Kong. Photo: Edmond So

Business

Markets


Shanghai could soar to break this year's high, Citic Securities says
Stock Connect trading will have clipped week due to Mid-Autumn Festival



Shanghai could soar to break this year's high, Citic Securities says
 
 


Live

China’s exports fell unexpectedly in August, as the trade war with the United States continued to hit the world’s second-largest economy.
Shipments fell by 1 per cent in the month after growing 3.3 per cent in July in dollar terms, and below the 2.1 per cent growth expected by analysts in a Bloomberg poll. Imports in the month dropped by 5.6 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of US$34.84 billion, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
July’s expansion now seems like an anomaly, likely driven by front-loading as new tariffs of 15 per cent on about US$110 billion of Chinese goods that took effect on September 1. American buyers of Chinese goods subject to the new tariffs were likely to have filled their inventories as much as possible before the goods became more expensive to import.
Furthermore, the much-reported 3.8 per cent depreciation of the yuan in August failed to stop the decline in exports – despite Washington’s fears that it was being used to give China’s exporters an unfair advantage.
Read full story by Finbbarr Bermingham and William Zheng here.
 


ICYMI: China exports fell unexpectedly in August as trade war bites

As Beijing has whipped up the vitriol against Hong Kong’s anti-government protesters and exerted pressure on companies to act against “offenders”, it has also instituted a plan to elevate neighbour Shenzhen into a global model socialist city that it hopes will lead the nation into its next level of development.
The conflicting perspectives on the two cities that share a border may fuel speculation that if Hong Kong does not soon toe the line, it runs the risk of being replaced by Shenzhen as the financial heart of the Greater Bay Area. But in reality, it would be a tall order for Shenzhen to pull even as a financial centre, let alone overtake Hong Kong.
Unlike Shenzhen, an emerging global technology hub operating under a hybrid planned and market economy system, Hong Kong has thrived on free flow of capital, trade and information, as well as the rule of law.
The two cities have become competitors, even as they remain long-time collaborators, according to Joe Chau Kwok-ming, the president of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Small and Medium Business.
“[But] Hong Kong and Shenzhen to a certain extent, cannot be compared … for a start, the legal structure is not the same,” he said. “In the short term, I can’t see how Shenzhen can replace Hong Kong.”
Read full story by Elaine Chan here. 
 


Can Shenzhen actually replace Hong Kong?

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK) has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue up to 1.36 billion A-shares. The approval is valid for 12 months, the company said in a filing to Hong Kong's stock exchange late on Friday.
-- Eric Ng


Chongqing Rural approved to issue up to 1.36 billion A-shares

Sunevision Holdings (1686 HK), the data centres and technology unit of Sun Hung Kai Properties (68067 HK), posted an 11 per cent rise in net profit to HK$865.2 million for the 12 months to June 30, as revenue grew 19 per cent to HK$1.63 billion. 
The revenue growth was driven by new contracts -- including major cloud computing players -- and existing customers, it said in a filing to Hong Kong's bourse late on Friday. 
A final dividend of 16.5 HK cents was recommended, up from 15.1 cents in the previous financial year.
-- Eric Ng


Sunevision Holdings posts 11 per cent rise in net profit

Net inflow into Hong Kong stocks through the southbound Stock Connect surged in August to US$7.5 billion, as mainland investors snapped up shares listed in Hong Kong that were trading at attractive discounts compared to their China-listed counterparts, analysts said.
The August inflow was the third largest recorded since the Stock Connect was launched in November 2014, said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale.
The surge comes as an index tracking the average price difference of companies’ shares listed in both markets shows that the usual premium paid for China-listed shares has grown since last November.
The so-called Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index tracks the average price difference of A shares over H shares for the most liquid Chinese companies that are dual listed in Hong Kong and the China domestic markets – in Shanghai and Shenzhen – that are traded through the Stock Connect.

 
Read full story here by Georgina Lee.
 


China traders snap up US$7.5 billion worth of cheaper Hong Kong shares in busy August

Here's what we are watching this morning:
US Friday markets/ What futures foretell
--The S&P 500 rose 0.09 per cent, the Nasdaq slipped 0.17 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.26 per cent. 
-- Hong Kong futures are up 0.8 per cent, China A50 futures are up 0.6 per cent.
IPO debuts: Sinosoft (603927 CH) 
Economic statistics/Central Bank action: None to note
Corporate events: None to note
Good Reads: Can Shenzhen replace Hong Kong as the financial heart of the Greater Bay Area? Elaine Chan explores this question. Analysts are talking about Hong Kong-listed utilities as “protest-resistant” stocks, Eric Ng explains in this feature for investors.
 


Morning guidance 

Analysts are talking about Hong Kong-listed utilities as “protest-resistant” stocks.
Some stocks have been hammered by the protests, including those of real estate companies, luxury retailers, subway operator MTR and Cathay Pacific.
But utilities – in particular, water supplier Guangdong Investment and broadband and telephone service provider HKT Trust and HKT – have held up comparatively well, and are expected to continue to do so regardless of how long the protests go on.
Hong Kong utilities and telecoms firms, either protected by regulated returns contracts or oligopolistic positions, are relatively safe from protest-related disruptions since demand and pricing of their essential services are quite stable.
They also are nearly immune to the US-China trade war and are big dividend payers.

Read full story here for investors by Eric Ng.
 


Are there 'protest resistant' stocks?

Hang Seng opened 0.2 per cent higher, at 26,743.36.
In China, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.8 per cent, at 3.023.78.
The CSI 300, which tracks blue chips listed on Shenzhen and Shanghai, opened also 0.8 per cent higher at 3980.96.
Over the weekend, China’s customs administration announced that August export growth fell unexpectedly by 1 per cent in dollar terms from a year ago, worse than forecast, coming after exports grew 3.3 per cent in July. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast exports to grow 2.2 per cent. August imports dropped 5.6 per cent, versus forecast of a deeper 6.4 per cent drop. 
The drop in exports underlines the impact of the trade war with the US, coming despite the yuan weakening 3.8 per cent during August in what was the biggest monthly depreciation since January 1994. Many industry observers had pointed to a weaker yuan as a potential mitigator for higher tariffs levied against China goods.
In Hong Kong, industrial and healthcare stocks rose.
AAC Tech (2018 HK) rose 1.9 per cent to HK$41; Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) rose 1.6 per cent at HK$11.6; and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) rose 1.4 per cent at HK$118.
In Shanghai, Citic Securities (600030 CH) rose 2.7 per cent at 24.79 yuan; Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) rose 0.7 per cent at 91.35 yuan; and CSC Financial (601066 CH) rose 5.7 per cent at 23.75 yuan.
In Hong Kong, protests continued into the 14th straight week, as protesters on Sunday vandalized entrances of several MTR stations and set fire to one, prompting police to respond with tear gas and arrests.
-- Georgina Lee 


China, Hong Kong markets start with gains

MTR (66 HK), the city’s railway operator, is down 2 per cent to HK$45.60 after protesters again targeted it in weekend attacks.  
MTR, which also derives substantial income from property development, is on track for its fourth straight day of declines.
Chairman Rex Auyeung and CEO Jacob Kam issued an open letter Sunday condemning the violence and vandalism at subway stations.
They said the operator was “experiencing the most tremendous challenges” in its 40-year history.
In the letter, they condemned “all violence” and said they “deeply regret” the vandalism at stations. Their letter also praised the company’s staff.
A group of protesters set fires outside several entrances of Central station, while some also smashed up glass partitions, turnstiles and television screens at Wan Chai station as they marched towards Causeway Bay.
-- Georgina Lee 


MTR, railway operator targeted by protesters, drops 

Sinosoft (603927 CH) surged to the 44 per cent first trading day up-limit minutes after the market opened, to 23.3 yuan, compared to its offer price at 16.18 yuan.
The Beijing-based software developer develops image management platforms, auditing management systems, and other software products.
-- Georgina Lee


Shanghai main board debutante Sinosoft surges to first trading day limit

The Hang Seng is being weighed down by real estate.
WH Group (288 HK) is down  1.6 per cent to HK$6.86. China textile maker Shenzhou International Group (2313 HK) is down 1.8 per cent to HK$110.40. MTR (66 HK) is down 1.3 per cent at HK$45.95. There are the top percentage losers in aerly trading.
Shenzhou has been weighed down by trade tariffs, but Bloomberg Intelligence analysts say its revenue growth is likely to exceed 15 per cent a year through 2020 "as it leverages economies of scale at its Vietnamese and Cambodian factories to sidestep the risks of US tariffs on clothing produced in China." 
Top gainers are PetroChina (857 HK), up 3.5 per cent to HK$4.13, and Geely Auto (175 HK), up 4.7 per cent to HK$13.36.
Carmakers are getting a boost from a number of new positive analyst notes.
The Hang Seng is back in positive territory, trading up a hair by 0.01 per cent at 26,693.40.
 
-- Deb Price


MTR falls while PetroChina, Geely Auto rally 

The southbound Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be closed from Wednesday through Friday while northbound trading will be suspended on Friday, due to the holiday.
Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges will be closed on Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Hong Kong's stock exchange will be open on Friday, because the public holiday is recognized on Saturday. 
The three stock exchanges have adopted the arrangement to close the southbound Connect before public holidays since the launch of the Stock Connect due to differences in securities settlements, the HKEX said.
Trading services and the Stock Connect will resume on Monday.
— Holly Chik
 


Stock Connect trading will have clipped week due to Mid-Autumn Festival

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects China's central bank to continue with its monetary policy easing, after it cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points on Friday for all banks.
BoAML expects the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to lower rates of the medium-term lending facility, which is a type of PBOC’s lending to commercial banks with maturity of three months to a year, possibly around the next Federal Reserve expected rate cut in mid September.
Then, as a next step, it expects the PBOC will cut the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points by the end of 2019.
This is due to the fact that cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) -- the amount of money that banks must hold as reserve -- cannot promote credit creation alone.
“As past experience suggests, RRR cuts tend to lower the short-term funding costs (7-day repo rates), but it has its limits in influencing long-term borrowing costs and promoting credit demand,” the bank’s economists including Helen Qiao, and Xiaojia Zhi wrote in a research note.
The latest RRR cut -- the third this year and effective on September 16 -- also includes targeted RRR cuts of an additional 100 basis points for select city commercial banks, which will be implemented in October 15 and November 15. Together, these reductions will release 900 billion yuan worth of liquidity into the economy, which has faced headwinds from the US China trade war.
-- Georgina Lee 


Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects more monetary easing in China 

Chart: Yuan's weakening 

Retail, real estate and stocks linked directly to the Hong Kong economy will continue to perform poorly in the near future due to protests, said Kenny Tang, chief executive of Royston Securities. 
However, the market will benefit from China's move to stimulate the economy as the trade war bites and the country's celebration of National Day on October 1, marking 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, he said. 
Mainland companies make up more than 40 per cent of the weighting on Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index. That is helping mitigate some of the downward pressure from protests on the Hang Seng.
The Hang Seng Index could reach between 27,000 and 28,000 after the expected US Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17-18 meeting. 
The Hang Seng has been seesawing this morning and is now trading down 0.12 per cent at 26,658.81. 
Real estate and retail stocks have been pounded by protests, which have made prospective home buyers cautious and discouraged mainland tourists and locals from shopping at malls.
Sales of flats at a new development in Tuen Mun flopped on Sunday and fresh data on Friday showed prices of lived-in homes have fallen.
-- Holly Chik


 Hang Seng to get boost from expected Fed rate cut, China's National Day celebrations, says analyst Kenny Tang  

Pork prices across China have doubled since July, reaching record highs of 30 yuan (US$4.20) to 33 yuan per kilogram, surpassing analysts' expectations. The last time pork prices reached similar levels, in June 2016, they peaked at 31.56 yuan per kilogram, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
While the government is implementing policies to offset the price increases, it will take years to build the supply of pigs back up to their previous levels after the outbreak of African swine fever in August led to the culling of hundreds of thousands of pigs and breeding stocks, analysts said.
China’s live pig stock in July dropped 32.3 per cent from a year ago, after the epidemic forced China to slaughter at least one million pigs. Pork is the most popular meat consumed in China.
WH Group (288 HK), the world's top pork producer, is trading down 1.9 per cent at HK$6.84 per cent.  

-- Georgina Lee 


Pig-related stocks widen losses in China as African swine fever darkens pork supply outlook

Sales of flats at a new development in Tuen Mun flopped on Sunday, as potential buyers grow cautious amid the 14-straight weekends of anti-government protests and fresh data showing prices of lived-in homes have fallen.
Only 22 units, or 19 per cent of 113 flats put up for sale at Wing Tai Properties’ Oma Oma development in Tuen Mun were sold on Sunday, the Post reported citing sources.
“It is the poorest sales outcome in the past two months ,” said Sammy Po, chief executive of Midland Realty’s residential development. “Buyers are carefully reassessing the outlook of the market as they fear prices will fall further in light of souring sentiment.
“Developers probably need to continue adopting the low price strategy if they want to sell fast,” he said.
China Resources Land (1109 HK) is down 2.1 per cent at HK$32.65; Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) is down 1.4 per cent at HK$113.5; Sino Land (83 HK) is down 1.4 per cent at HK$11.56; Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) is down 1.2 per cent at HK$18.06.
Wing Tai Properties (369 HK), however, bucked the downward trend of its blue chip counterparts, and is trading up 1.5 per cent at HK$4.85.
-- Georgina Lee 


Properties top morning losers in Hong Kong, as protests dampen sentiment about home sales

Tech and software stocks gave a boost to the Shanghai benchmark index in morning trading. The index was up 0.4 per cent at 3,010.51 at the lunch break.
In Shanghai, 360 Security Tech (601360 CH) rose 4.2 per cent to 24.22 yuan; Shenzhen Goodix Tech (603160 CH) jumped 5.6 per cent to 200.08 yuan; Sanan Optoeletronics (600703 CH) rose by the daily 10 per cent up-limit, to 12.98 yuan; Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) (603986 CH) up 6.7 per cent at 150.4 yuan.  China United Network Communications (600050 CH) is up 0.3 per cent at 6.21 yuan.
The gains in China -- the CSI 300 was also up 0.3 per cent at 3,959.06 -- contrasted with the Hang Seng Index, which opened slightly higher but was down at the lunch break about 0.1 per cent, at 26,669.38.
-- Georgina Lee


Tech and software stocks boost Shanghai benchmark in morning trading

Protests began on June 9 with a massive peaceful demonstration and an inspiring sea of umbrellas. Hong Kong stocks pretty much chugged along, mostly weighed down by the trade war.
But then the protests took a violent turn, taking selective sectors and companies down with them.
On July 14 in the northern district of Sha Tin, surreal battles between protesters and pepper-spraying police took place in a shopping centre. Already, retail had been hurting. Late on July 21, also a Sunday, a mob of men in white T-shirts attacked protesters and passengers at the Yuen Long MTR station. Then, on August 13-14, protesters targeted the city’s international airport, leading to cancelled flights and shocking scenes of violence. Suddenly, beginning about in the middle of July, the toll on business due to the protests became a major worry among investors, sending shares in the ensuring weeks of MTR, Cathay, Chow Tai Fook, cosmetics retailer Sa Sa, Harbour City mall owner Wharf Real Estate and others tumbling.
There was more violence on Sunday, when some protesters set fires at the Central subway station.

-- Deb Price


Chart: Some of the big losing stocks amid escalating violence in Hong Kong

Geely Auto (175 HK) was the fifth most actively traded stock on the main board, with HK$1.9 billion traded by early afternoon.
The company announced after market close Friday that total sales volume in August was up 11 per cent from July, but down 19 per cent from a year ago, to 101,223 units.
That is an improvement from July, when monthly sales were up only by about 1 per cent from June, but down 24 per cent if compared to the year before, at 91,375 units.
Of total sales in August, 7.8 per cent, or 7,897 units, were new energy and electrified vehicles.
Total sales volume for the first eight months of this year was 844,278 units, down 17 per cent from a year ago, and achieving 62 per cent of the group’s revised full year sales target of 1.36 million units in 2019.
Geely Auto is the top gainer this afternoon among blue chips, up 4.5 per cent at HK$13.34. That is its highest share price since July 4, when it closed at HK$13.54.
-- Georgina Lee 
 


Geely Auto rises to two-month high, after August car sales improve from July

Stocks in the world’s best-performing market of the past month have more room to gain, as China’s monetary authorities turn on the tap to inject more liquidity into the economy and financial system, according to a forecast by the country’s largest public traded broker.
The Shanghai Composite Index may rise by at least another 9 per cent from Friday’s close of 2,999.60, which would put it in the position to surpass the year’s record set in April, according to Citic Securities’ analysts led by Qin Peijing.
“With the expectations about improvements in policies and corporate earnings, an expansion of valuations will open up more room for an upside on the index,” the Citic analysts said in a report on Monday.
China’s financial markets are cheering, after the People’s Bank of China on Friday cut the money that banks must set aside by 50 basis points for all banks - with an additional full percentage point for city commercial lenders - and released an estimated 900 billion yuan (US$126 billion) of funds into the financial system to quench the thirst of highly leveraged borrowers and an economy whose growth pace is expected to slow to the worst annual pace on record.
 

Read full story by Shanghai-based stocks reporter Zhang Shidong here. 


Shanghai could soar to break this year's high, Citic Securities says

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) is the top loser this afternoon of blue chips, falling 3.9 per cent to HK$10.98.
Short sell value of the stock reached HK$130.6 million, making it the ninth most shorted stock today. About 23 per cent of its turnover as of intraday afternoon trading was from short sell transactions.
A short sell is a trade whereby an investor sells borrowed securities in anticipation of a price decline.
Its relative strength index (RSI) is at 66. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. A stock with a level above 70 is considered overbought, and when below 30, it is seen as oversold.
-- Georgina Lee 


Short sellers see drop coming for Sino Biopharmaceutical

The CSI 300 closed at its highest point in over four months, as traders felt upbeat that more monetary and consumption support measures will be coming from Beijing.
The CSI 300, which tracks blue chips listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai exchanges, closed 0.6 per cent higher at 3,972.95, which is the highest level since April 24, when it closed at 4,030.09.
The Shanghai Composite closed up 0.8 per cent at 3,024.74. That is its highest in two months and the first time the index has reclaimed the 3,000-level since July 5, when the index closed at 3,011.06
Alvin Cheung, associate director of Prudential Brokerage, said an expectation for more supportive fiscal and monetary measures to support the equity market was behind the solid performances of the China indexes today.
“Over the recent months we could see that the Shanghai Composite Index has bounced back higher once it fell back to 2,800 level. I expect the Shanghai benchmark to reach 3,100 this week,” said Cheung.
-- Georgina Lee 
 


China stocks close with gains; CSI closes at four-month high

So far, September is starting off strongly for the Hang Seng Index, after painful back-to-back losses in July and August.

 
-- Deb Price


Chart: Hang Seng monthly performance 

The Hang Seng went through a day of sluggish trading, seesawing within a narrow range of 198 points throughout the day before closing at 26,681.4, lower by just 0.04 per cent.
The sluggishness in Hong Kong trading came after 14 straight weekends of protests. On Sunday, protesters vandalized entrances of several MTR stations and set fire to one, leading police to respond with tear gas and arrests.
The damage to the city’s economy is palpable.
August visitors to Hong Kong were down nearly 40 per cent from a year ago, which amounted to the second biggest year-on-year decline since May 2003 when the deadly Sars epidemic sank tourist arrivals by 70 per cent. Occupancy rates of hotels in some districts have fallen more than half while room rates decreased 40 per cent to 70 per cent, dampening retail sales and the catering sector, Financial Secretary Paul Chan wrote in a blog post on Sunday..
MTR (66 HK), whose top management said the operator was “experiencing the most tremendous challenges” in its 40-year history after vandalism, fire and violence related to Sunday protests forced several stations to shut down, closed down 0.4 per cent at HK$46.35.
Leading the index down was Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK), down 4.2 per cent at HK$10.94.
Selective properties also fell, with China Resources Land (1109 HK) down 1.9 per cent at HK$32.7, and Link Reit (823 HK) down 0.7 per cent at HK$88.7.
But countering the losses was Geely Auto (175 HK), the biggest gainer in the blue chips, which closed ahead by 5.2 per cent at HK$13.4, after the company announced after market close Friday that its total sales volume in August was up 11 per cent from July, when it recorded just 1 per cent monthly growth. PetroChina (857 HK) rose 3.3 per cent, to HK$4.12.
-- Georgina Lee 


Hong Kong stocks close lower, weighed down by Sunday protest violence

Here's an update of how those protest-hammered stocks we've been watching did today.

 
-- Deb Price


Chart: Protest-hammered stocks at close

Billionaire Li Shufu’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (175 HK) agreed to invest in flying-car developer Volocopter as the Chinese car giant diversifies into technologies that eventually could supplant the traditional gas guzzler.
Geely, which owns Volvo Cars and a stake in Daimler, led a round of investment that raised €50 million (US$55 million) to help the VoloCity air taxi launch commercially within the next three years, the companies said on Monday. Geely and Bruchsal, Germany-based Volocopter agreed to form a joint venture planning to bring airborne cars to China, Bloomberg reports.
Volocopter also is in talks to raise more funds by the end of the year, it said. Daimler has owned a stake since 2017, Bloomberg reports.
Geely’s investment comes as China tries to wean drivers off internal-combustion engines in favour of new-energy vehicles, seeking ways to ease choking air pollution and a dependence on foreign oil supplies.
 
Read full story here.
 


Stocks Blog: China shares gain on liquidity injection; Hong Kong stocks slip after protesters set fire at MTR subway stop

Shanghai could soar to break this year's high, Citic Securities says Stock Connect trading will have clipped week due to Mid-Autumn Festival

Shanghai could soar to break this year's high, Citic Securities says

Stock Connect trading will have clipped week due to Mid-Autumn Festival