New | Narrow poll predicts US Federal Reserve unlikely to raise interest rates - for now

The US Federal Reserve will hold fire a bit longer on its first interest rate rise in nearly a decade, according to a little over half of economists in a Reuters poll who only last week narrowly predicted the Fed will pull the trigger on Thursday.

The survey of 80 economists based in North America and Europe was taken over the last 24 hours as each panelist was asked to reconfirm if they still held the same position, while a few who couldn’t be reached last week were also polled.

Trying to predict whether the Fed will hike this week after it already took a pass on a rate rise in June and July has turned out to be one of the toughest jobs in a long history of polling of central bank watchers.

Since last week’s poll, five economists have changed their call for a hike on Thursday and now expect the Fed to hold. None changed their view from a hold to a hike, suggesting that momentum is moving against a Fed move this week.

But it has gone right down to the wire, with the number of economists predicting no change in rates now outnumbering those betting on a hike by 45 to 35. Among primary dealers, 12 banks expect the Fed to hold and the remaining 10 expect a hike.