Hong Kong may have lost US$4 billion of capital to Singapore this summer, says Goldman Sachs, as protests rattled nerves
- Goldman Sachs estimates US$3 billion to US$4 billion in Hong Kong dollars may have been deposited in Singapore this summer
- Singapore saw a sharp uptick in foreign currency deposits in July and August
As much as US$4 billion in capital may have headed from Hong Kong to Singapore as the former was rocked this summer by unprecedented civil unrest, according to a new report.
Goldman Sachs analysts Gurpreet Singh Sahi and Yingqiang Guo estimated between US$3 billion and US$4 billion in Hong Kong dollar deposits had flowed to the city’s rival international financial centre as of the end of August. But, that was “still small” compared with the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar deposits in Hong Kong, which accounted for about US$1.5 trillion at the end of August, the investment bank said.
“We found modest net outflow from [Hong Kong dollar] deposits in HK and modest net inflow of [foreign exchange] deposits in Singapore. That said, the HK banking system still has ample liquidity in HK$ as well as in foreign currencies,” the analysts said in a research note on Monday.
“However, this set of data is unlikely to allay investor concerns around outflows from HK, in our view. We believe the debate on HK outflow/liquidity will remain active.”
Goldman Sachs did not directly attribute the outflows from Hong Kong to the protests in its research note.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore said that foreign-currency deposits by non-bank customers rose 52 per cent to a record S$12.8 billion (US$1.63 billion) in August, compared with S$8.4 billion a year ago. Singapore saw a sharp uptick in foreign currency in deposits in July and August.
