China seen easing coal mining curbs as it prioritises growth, energy security: Goldman
- Coal output will grow by 100 million tonnes this year as Beijing loosens restrictions because of economic and energy-security pressures, Goldman says
China is likely to ease mining safety curbs in Shanxi, the nation’s top coal producing province, despite a string of accidents that has reduced output this year to ease energy security pressure and rejuvenate the economy, according to Goldman Sachs.
The US investment bank forecast in a report this week that China’s annual coal production will grow by about 100 million tonnes compared with last year, in line with the 2024 targets of the main coal producing firms and provinces, but slower than the average growth from 2021 to 23.
Overall coal output narrowed to 0.8 per cent year-on-year in May, but production from January to May decreased 3 per cent year on year to 1.86 billion tonnes, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
“We believe the weakness in China coal production has been driven by stricter mining safety checks, especially in Shanxi, China’s top coal-producing province,” Goldman analysts Wei Hongcen and Samantha Dart said in the report.
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“For the remainder of 2024, we expect a catch-up in coal production in Shanxi province, as it would be under both economic growth and energy-security pressures to loosen restrictions to produce more.”