China copper imports set to rise

The mainland is expected to import more refined copper next year as Beijing steps up building of power networks, rail lines and low-cost homes, while domestic production is likely to be squeezed by tight scrap supply, industry sources said.

Refined copper consumption might rise 5 per cent to 6 per cent next year, three large end-users and producers estimated. This would take consumption to about 8.6 million tonnes, based on 8.1 million tonnes estimated for this year by state-backed research firm Beijing Antaike Information and Development.

Importers are likely to increase orders for term shipments next year to restore stocks, after more than 500,000 tonnes of bonded stocks were used this year, the industry sources and traders said.

This would be a reversal from this year, when importers cut term shipments, depressing copper prices on the London Metal Exchange, which have lost more than 9 per cent so far this year to trade at about US$7,200 a tonne.

The mainland's economy is expected to continue picking up speed next year, with metals demand helped by state-led urbanisation projects.

Recent economic data has reinforced hopes for a sustained recovery, with factory output in August hitting a 17-month high, retail sales growing at their fastest pace this year and power production posting the second-highest monthly growth this year.