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Plunging Chinese rental yields point to property bubbles in major cities

In Xiamen, the city most at risk of a bubble, investors can expect to wait 100 years to recover their initial investment through rent

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Aerial photo of Xiamen, which figures suggest is China’s most ‘bubble-prone’ city. Photo: Xinhua
Zheng Yangpengin Beijing

Home rental yields in Chinese cities, which at certain levels can signify a property price bubble, continued to fall in the past quarter.

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The yields in 13 cities slipped below 2 per cent, suggesting an accumulation of risk in the market.

The rental yields in all the first-tier cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – dropped under 2 per cent, while nine second-tier cities joined them, according to Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, which compiles the data for 50 cities.

The average yields are below the level in major global cities such as New York on 4.7 per cent and Tokyo on 4.3 per cent.

The coastal city of Xiamen recorded the lowest average rental yield of just 1 per cent, meaning investors can expect to wait 100 years to recover their initial investment if they solely rely on rent. Rental yield in Beijing touched 1.4 per cent, the lowest among the first-tier cities, meaning a property’s price is on average 71.4 times its annual rent.

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A construction site in Beijing, where rental yields have dropped to 1.4 per cent, the lowest among first-tier cities. Photo: EPA
A construction site in Beijing, where rental yields have dropped to 1.4 per cent, the lowest among first-tier cities. Photo: EPA
The decline comes despite the fact home price growth has already tapered this year amid a succession of market-cooling measures introduced by local governments. Year-on-year new home price growth in Xiamen plunged to 14.7 per cent in June from 38.8 per cent in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which ranks it as the city most prone to a property bubble.
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