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Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital may have inflicted US$10 billion in total losses for the world’s banks and brokers from Wall Street to Zurich and Tokyo, JPMorgan says
- Losses from trades unwinding related to Archegos will be “very material”, JPMorgan analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote
- JPMorgan had previously estimated losses in the range of US$2 billion to US$5 billion
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Banks roiled by the Archegos Capital fallout may see total losses in the range of US$5 billion to US$10 billion, according to JPMorgan.
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Losses from trades unwinding related to Archegos will be “very material” in relation to lending exposure for a business that is mark-to-market and holds liquid collateral, analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note. They added that Nomura Holdings’s indication of potentially losing US$2 billion and press speculation of a US$3 billion to US$4 billion loss at Credit Suisse is “not an unlikely outcome.”
Analysts and investors are trying to figure out the final losses to banks exposed to the Archegos implosion, with the task made harder by the opaque nature of the leveraged trading involved. JPMorgan had previously estimated losses in the range of US$2 billion to US$5 billion.
“We are still puzzled why Credit Suisse and Nomura have been unable to unwind all their positions at this point,” the analysts wrote, adding that they expect to see full disclosures from lenders by the end of this week.
The analysts advised investors to keep an eye on credit agencies’ statements as they expect poor risk management to be an issue.
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That’s an emerging theme at Credit Suisse, where executives are expecting the loss related to Archegos to run into the billions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. March’s blow-ups may wipe out more than a year of profits for the bank and threaten its stock buy-back plans, as well as adding to the reputational hit from other missteps.
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