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Number of vacant homes in Hong Kong may surge to 18-year-high as families head to UK under BN(O) visa scheme, Bloomberg forecasts

  • The predicted exodus would take the number of empty homes to 66,683, more than five times the number of units in the gigantic Taikoo Shing housing estate
  • Rents may slide by 10 per cent in 2021 as the shrinking population threatens to stifle leasing, according to Bloomberg’s research report

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The Taikoo Shing residential estate is the largest in Hong Kong with more than 12,000 units. Photo: Nora Tam
The number of homes standing empty in Hong Kong may climb to an 18-year high in 2021 as thousands of families flee to the UK, according to a Bloomberg estimate.
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The proportion of vacant units could surge to 5.4 per cent according to a Bloomberg Intelligence forecast based on a scenario in which 1 per cent of households vacate their private dwellings and head overseas.

The bulk of the estimated 11,737 departing households will be heading to Britain to take advantage of a government scheme to facilitate citizenship for holders of the British National (Overseas) passport, according to Bloomberg’s scenario.

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The forecast exodus would take the number of empty homes in Hong Kong to 66,683, up from 52,370 last year. For an idea of scale, that is more than five times the number of units in the gigantic Taikoo Shing housing estate in the east of Hong Kong Island.

Rents may slide by another 10 per cent in 2021 as the shrinking population threatens to stifle residential leasing, following a 6 per cent drop last year, according to Bloomberg’s research report.

“Landlords may struggle to find tenants for their vacant rental units amid Hong Kong’s sputtering economy, possibly hurting their bargaining power in rental negotiations,” said the report, led by Patrick Wong and Iwona Hovenko, real estate analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence.

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About 300,000 Hong Kong residents are ultimately expected to emigrate to the UK under the BN(O) visa scheme, according to the British government, eventually pushing the vacancy rate as high as 8.2 per cent, or roughly 101,000 units.

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