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Cathay Pacific job cuts will hit Hong Kong housing market as axed pilots, cabin crew move away or downsize, say analysts

  • Rents in locations such as Tung Chung and Tsing Yi, where a large number of Cathay employees live, are seen declining by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent
  • Property agents have already seen a rush of laid off pilots and cabin crew looking to sell up completely or downsize to more affordable units

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Tung Chung Bay, pictured, is home to a high proportion of Cathay Pacific staff. Photo: Shutterstock
Cheryl Arcibal
The massive job cuts at Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’s flagship carrier, are likely to further drag down the city’s flagging property market, with districts close to the airport potentially facing steep cuts in home prices and rents, according to analysts.
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The embattled airline’s announcement on Tuesday that 5,900 jobs would be axed, including cabin crew and pilots, will further increase the number of jobless residents in Hong Kong, which rose to a near 16-year high of 6.4 per cent in the third quarter as the city reels from the impact of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate climbed 0.3 percentage points in the three months to September, bringing the total number of people out of work to 259,800.

According to research carried out by Knight Frank, there is a strong inverse correlation between unemployment and house prices in Hong Kong. A spike in the jobless rate typically leads to a fall in home prices one or two months later, said Martin Wong, associate director, research and consultancy, Greater China, at Knight Frank.

“By this logic, it is likely housing prices will fall in the fourth quarter. For home rentals, as there has been more supply available in the market, especially for mass residential, there will [also be] a drop in rents,” he said.

The property consultancy forecasts that housing prices will fall by between 3 and 5 per cent. Rents in locations such as Tung Chung and Tsing Yi, where a considerable number of Cathay employees reside, are seen declining by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent.

Hong Kong’s official home price index has slipped 3.6 per cent from 394.8 at its peak in July 2018 to August this year. Used residential property prices fell 1.1 per cent in August, the most in six months.
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While it may take time before the full impact of soaring unemployment in the city is felt by the housing market, anecdotes from property agents suggest the trend is under way.

“We have a case of a Dragon Air pilot who has lost his job and is now leaving Hong Kong as his wife doesn’t work. In other cases we are seeing pilots stay as their spouses also work and they are looking to move and cut their rents by up 40 per cent by taking smaller units or moving to different locations,” said Victoria Allan, founder and managing director of Habitat Property.
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