Where have all the buyers gone, as Hong Kong is poised for 12,000 new homes to flood the market in the next three months?

Hong Kong developers, looking for a strong finish to the year on the back of new project launches, could see their hopes dashed, as analysts fear the market may be unable to fully absorb the new supply amid the possibility of a fourth wave of coronavirus outbreak that could pummel the city’s economy further.

Up to 11,578 new homes in 38 projects could be launched this quarter, according to developers’ websites and Lands Department reports of presale consent.

The likelihood of selling all these units, however, seems like a tall order given that only 10,041 new homes were sold in the first nine months, compared with 16,851 units in the same period last year, government data showed.

“The market will see supply of some 11,000 flats in the fourth quarter as developers speed up the launch of new projects,” said Sammy Po, chief executive of Midland Realty’s residential division.

Po said that 3,067 units were sold in the fourth quarter last year, adding that even if the sales were to be doubled to 6,000 in the last three months of the year, nearly half of the stock will remain unsold.

The upcoming property launches could coincide with the new wave of coronavirus infections, deepening Hong Kong’s worst recession in decades, which in turn is expected to drive up the unemployment rate further. The city’s jobless rate stood at 6.1 per cent in August during the height of the third wave of coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s economy is expected to shrink 6 to 8 per cent this year, marking first back-to-back annual contractions since record-keeping began in 1961.