Advertisement
Advertisement
Renters who received eviction notices at their flat units showed at their landlord’s mansion in this 2018 event. This time, victims of Covid-19 are ‘better protected’ by sympathetic governments and interest groups. Photo: Los Angeles Tenants Union
Opinion
Concrete Analysis
by Christopher Dillon
Concrete Analysis
by Christopher Dillon

Covid-19 and the end of the amateur landlord in Hong Kong and elsewhere

  • Investors or owners hoping to sell a home with a delinquent tenant will need to offer a steep discount
  • Small-time landlords taking large losses are unlikely to receive much sympathy as tenants hit by Covid-19 gain support
Real estate is in Hong Kong’s DNA. Government-induced land shortages, easy access to credit and a growing population made local property a good investment and the source of many family fortunes. Start with a 400-square-foot flat in Tai Po, trade up to a slightly larger unit in Sha Tin, rinse-and-repeat, and with a little luck you’d soon own a luxurious home in Mid-Levels.
Buying property abroad was a popular next step. Astronomical local prices and the peg-based strength of the Hong Kong dollar made overseas real estate look cheaper, even in historically expensive cities like London, New York and Tokyo.

In turbulent times, diversification remains a wise strategy.

Buyers were infamous for visiting property expos in Hong Kong’s five-star hotels and purchasing million-dollar homes off the plan, often in cities and neighbourhoods they’d never seen. Financing was easy to arrange and tenants paid the mortgage.

Sure, there was the occasional hiccough, like construction delays, bankrupt builders and delinquent tenants. But if you stuck with established developers and proven locations, you could not go too far wrong. Similar patterns played out with investors from Singapore, mainland China and elsewhere.

Covid-19 has changed all that.

As millions of jobs vanished, one-third of Canadian and 44 per cent of New York City tenants said they would struggle to pay their May 2020 rent. Tenants found support from Toronto’s “Keep Your Rent”, New York State’s “Housing Justice For All” and similar groups throughout North America, Europe and Oceania.

New organizations were founded in response to Covid-19 outbreak, while existing policy groups and political movements adopted the disease as a cause.

New York State Governor Mario Cuomo signed an order in March banning residential evictions, which has since been extended to at least August 20. In Ontario, premier Doug Ford has thrown them a lifeline. “If you have a choice between putting food on the table and paying rent then you are putting food on your table and the Government of Ontario will make sure that nobody gets evicted.”

While tenants do not pay rent, landlords continue to be liable for taxes, management fees, insurance and mortgage payments. Meanwhile, tenants still expect their homes to be maintained.

Newspapers feature stories about unresponsive corporate owners and heartless slumlords. Media-shy small investors are not organised or PR-savvy, so public opinion often favours tenants.

Where does this leave overseas investors? Reduced flight schedules and quarantines for arriving travellers mean problems must be managed by video conference, phone or email. The quality of your local property manager is more important than ever. Meanwhile, social distancing rules make it tougher to show a home to a prospective tenant or buyer.

Owners hoping to sell a home with a delinquent tenant will need to offer a steep discount. While mortgage rates are low, lenders fear further job losses and are becoming increasingly cautious. In some markets, vendors compete with owners unloading homes that – until Covid-19 arrived – had been profitable short-term rentals.

Many of these properties are now offered as fully-furnished conventional rentals, as travel bans reduced short-term bookings to zero. Toronto’s ICE Condominiums, where more than 100 units are now for sale, is a prime example.

These problems are not limited to residential property in North America. Student housing in the United Kingdom and commercial property in Australia are also affected.

Until scientists develop a vaccine and a cure, Covid-19’s human and economic impact will continue to unfold. Landlords with unrealised profits should consider selling now, while buyers are relatively upbeat and rents are current. While each market is unique, there is a good chance conditions will deteriorate further before they rebound.

Small landlords taking large losses are unlikely to receive much sympathy. But ultimately, tenants will be the biggest losers. Fewer investors means less housing choice, and the rental stock that remains will be run by large corporations – that have the funds to withstand rent strikes and the lawyers to manage complex regulations – and by governments.

At some point, Covid-19 will create opportunities for end users and investors with a tolerance for risk. Until then, real estate investment trusts, which offer liquidity, diversification and dividends, are an attractive alternative to rent strikes and delinquent tenants.

Christopher Dillon is the author of the Landed series of real estate books (Landedbook.com).

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: No pity for small-time landlords over virus
Post